Higher win probability or higher payout?

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  • slope99
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-19-12
    • 23

    #1
    Higher win probability or higher payout?
    For example:
    Parlay 1: I get 3% ev. Payout 5 to 1.
    Parlay 2: I get 2.5% ev. Payout 20 to 1.

    (I calculate a +ev because bookie is off with his spreads)

    If you had 100$ to bet, would you bet it all on game 1? Or 50$ each game, or other?
  • subs
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 1412

    #2
    slope, u need to understand EG, or expected growth.

    search for Ganchrow's () very well written threads about this, much better explained than i could hope to offer. might look confusing at first but he even gives examples 4 u to work through urself.

    here is the 1 i was thinking of, but really try to get through all his posts in the tank - pretty sure u won't think it a waste of time.
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