Looking to see how fellow handicappers make there own lines and totals for game and what data and formulas they use? Each sport is diffrent I'm mainly looking for ideas in NFL
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A simple quick guildline example that I start from.
TEAM PF PA
New England Patriots 513 342 = (513 + 400) = 913 / 32 = 28.5(rounded)
NEW YORK GIANTS 394 400 = (394 + 342) = 736 / 32 = 23
Predicted line on a nuetral field: New England -5.5 and a Total of 51.5
Actual opening line for Super Bowl was: New England -3 and 54.5Comment -
Hey willie, how would you apply that to the nba, and is the 32, the number of weeks combined?Comment -
Yes, the 32 is the total # of games played. I was a little hasty in posting the above. I was trying to show a quick example. To be more precise for the Super Bowl the following should have been added to get a better Guide against the Opening Line.
Playoff Round New York New England
Wild Card 24-2 bye
Divisional 37-20 45-10
Conference 20-17 23-20
Playoff Totals 81-39 68-30
Regular Season 394-400 513-342
TOTALS 475-439 581-372
TEAM PF PA
New England Patriots 581 372 = (581 + 439) = 1020 / 37 = 27.5(rounded)
NEW YORK GIANTS 475 439 = (475 + 372) = 847 / 37 = 23
Predicted line on a nuetral field: New England -4.5 and a Total of 50.5(I add anywhere from +2 to +4 for the Home Field advantage during regular season to the Spread but NEVER to the Totals)
Actual opening line for Super Bowl was: New England -3 and 54.5
Sorry I wasn't more precise in the first post.
To be very honest I've never found a great system for the NBA. The best starting point I've found is to use Statfox.com's avg. PF-PA records same as NFL and add 5 points for Home Court advantage.
Here's an example of 'let's see if it passes the smell test' that I sometimes use if at first glance the line appears to be way off.
I like to reverse the playing site and see if I still like the game as much or more. (Just subtract -10 points to the away team to see what they would be if they were playing at home or add +10 to the home team to see what they would be if they were playing away.)
Hope this helps some. Like I said, these are just starting points I like to employ.Comment
