Any Input Would be Appreciated

[Romanov]

If you found a local who nighty had a few lines that were far enough from Pinnacle's that you had an edge, how would you exploit this to the fullest? Would you bet full Kelly? The edges could be as high as 11% on normal lines.

Thanks

[AlwaysDrawing]

lol, bet the max, and scalp out whatever you're uncomfortable with.

[Romanov]

lol, bet the max, and scalp out whatever you're uncomfortable with.

Well I would be extremely uncomfortable losing just one max bet. I don't have a huge bankroll. So far I have been betting full kelly and I have had less growth than expected

[Kolotoure]

Keep betting full Kelly and scalp if you want to lower variance

[AlwaysDrawing]

You're literally sitting on a goldmine. If you can't figure out how to get the gold, you're in trouble.

If you can literally scallop out huge middles, then do it with some other book to lower your variance. Otherwise, dedicate more funds to crushing this local, and find a way to get more funds so you can use a larger Kelly Bankroll to start rolling in the piles of cash.

[FourLengthsClear]

Which sports/leagues is your local offering you these stale lines and, approximately how many plays per day are you making based on them?

[Romanov]

Ncaab and nba

Last night (big card) i had 8 plays with an edge on the pinny closer (or at least 10 mins b4 gametime) of at least 1.93%. Saturdays i have a ton. On other nights it is from 1-3 plays usually. I could play games with less edge but ive set a cut off.

My bankroll is relatively small. Im in college. I dont want to bet outside of my means and get smacked in the face by variance before i can handle it

[FourLengthsClear]

Ncaab and nba

Last night (big card) i had 8 plays with an edge on the pinny closer (or at least 10 mins b4 gametime) of at least 1.93%. Saturdays i have a ton. On other nights it is from 1-3 plays usually. I could play games with less edge but ive set a cut off.

My bankroll is relatively small. Im in college. I dont want to bet outside of my means and get smacked in the face by variance before i can handle it

In your shoes I would tend to go with 3/4 Kelly for NBA and 1/2 Kelly for NCAAB and bet all games where your local's line gives an edge.

Another question though. What is your source of push probabilities for calculating your edge on ATS bets?

[Romanov]

K thanks for the help. Im taking pinnys alternate lines and finding my edge but not doing anything with push probs.

What should i be doing? When i get home i will update my modified version of your spreadsheet that u uploaded a couple weeks ago

[FourLengthsClear]

K thanks for the help. Im taking pinnys alternate lines and finding my edge but not doing anything with push probs.

What should i be doing? When i get home i will update my modified version of your spreadsheet that u uploaded a couple weeks ago

Nothing that's fine.

Short of building your own push rate tables, using the Pinny prices is the way to go. I though you might be using the SBR half point calculator which, as has been discussed many times, has some inherent problems.

Even with the Pinny odds you would tend to find that your real edge is higher (on sides) where the projected total is low and lower when the projected total is high.

[Romanov]

Nothing that's fine. Short of building your own push rate tables, using the Pinny prices is the way to go. I though you might be using the SBR half point calculator which, as has been discussed many times, has some inherent problems. Even with the Pinny odds you would tend to find that your real edge is higher (on sides) where the projected total is low and lower when the projected total is high.

Interesting and logical point.

I think I am going to allocate more funds to gambling since this is guaranteed +EV and I don't really have to worry about lines working against me since I can lock all bets in just before game time.

The guy puts out NCAAB lines about an hour before game time (so lines out at 6, 7 & 8pm on weeknights). He puts out most of his NBA lines (except for the really late west coast ones) very early in the evening. Usually they start out sharp, sometimes a game or two will be off by a half point or a total will be off by a point and a half. I watch the lines to see if any swing my way. Usually, in the last 20 minutes a few of the lines end up .5-2 points off his sides. I have received up to a "free" 5 points on totals but usually not that much.

He NEVER changes his lines once they are out.

Basically I am betting with the late money coming in on every bet.

[Romanov]

FYI,

I am on Florida Atlantic -1, Illinois +6.5, and Lakers/Celtics under 176.5

[FourLengthsClear]

FYI,

I am on Florida Atlantic -1, Illinois +6.5, and Lakers/Celtics under 176.5

1-1-1 if I am not mistaken but those 'free' points came in really handy!

[Romanov]

Yep. I had 5 units on the under, 2 on the push, an d 1 on the loss so i came out ahead. Good night!

Edit: Thanks for the help guys even though this isn't really handicapping

[AlwaysDrawing]

Yep. I had 5 units on the under, 2 on the push, an d 1 on the loss so i came out ahead. Good night!

Edit: Thanks for the help guys even though this isn't really handicapping

[Romanov]

What? They weren't exactly 5,2 & 1 but I rounded for the sake of the simplicity of my post

edit: if you are laughing because you think I am lying to look like I won, look at the closing lines compared to my lines. Of course I would bet more on the ones that had more of an edge (the under and the -1)

[byronbb]

why not run parlays and slowly grind him?