math models in hoops

[jeffdane]

question for those who use stats entirely to create a line.

in your experience,

is the "stats created line"

a prediction of the game result

or

prediction for a true line


starting to think its a true line and difference between the predicted line and the actual line could tell me something.

model is based on scoring off, scoring def, opponents pts scored and allowed, strength of schedule power ratings, and of home court advantage.