Sorry but what is MOV? Difference between final score and the spread? If so that would make sense. For example 300 games spread -3.5, 20 games where favorite won by more than -9.5. So probability that favorite covers -9.5 spread when listed as -3.5 equals 20/300 = 6.7% (what you call push % I believe)
Where can I get all this data???
The ideal, I would think, would be to get it directly from Pinnacle (since closest to true odds) updated with new data as the season goes along.
And how far back do you go? 5 years? 10 years? The problem I see with going too far back is the game is different now than 10 years ago (can't touch the QB, fewer kickoff returns, etc.). Then again if you don't you have smaller database to calculate your probabilities from.
MOV = margin of victory. Covers has data going way back for North American sports and their lines are Pinny closers.
