Correlated teasers again...

[laxbrah420]

If a line being 30% of the total means it's circled, then I'm thinking that teasing lines/totals that are 25-29.5% must have reasonable value? For instance, the vandy/kentucky game this weekend is at 29.5%.
The only way I'd imagine this is not a good value is if 30% is actually just a super precautionary measure with little evidence to suggest that betting fav/over at 30% is profitable...

Can anybody weigh in here?

[Bsims]

I looked at correlated teasers a while back and concluded they weren't worth the effort. OK, the study wasn't that thorough, but the results were bad enough I just gave up.

In your case here, I ran through my college football line data for the last 25 years and selected all the games where the home team was a 13 point favorite. I found about 80 games with half of them having totals (early years I had line data only and not totals). Teasing the spreads by 6 points raised the cover percentage for the game to 57% and the overs to 72%. Combining these you would have won this bet 41% of the time, not nearly what you would need to make money at +100.

So once again, I walk away from the correlated teaser questions shaking my head no.

[laxbrah420]

I don't think you measured the correlation right though? You can't just multiply the two percentages together. We're interested in what percent of time that when the fav covered, the over did too...I'd bet it's higher than 72%

[TomG]

big difference between getting +260 and laying -110

[laxbrah420]

You're getting +260 and laying -110 on two vastly different events...
Were you trying to be condescending? I don't get the point of that post

[skrtelfan]

He means you get +260 on 2 team parleys but only -110 on 2 team teaser.

[laxbrah420]

He means you get +260 on 2 team parleys but only -110 on 2 team teaser.

Yea I know how much a parlay pays. Maybe you should consider playing pleasers if the odds are so good the other way...