EPL: will player x score prop help please..

[GarbageMan]

if i am pricing this prop, can i use poisson? as number of shot attempts by said player is likely to be <20

[mathdotcom]

Phrase your question like you're not a slovenly immigrant and maybe we'll help you

[GarbageMan]

Phrase your question like you're not a slovenly immigrant and maybe we'll help you

edit

actually thinking about it, don't bother mr math, i'd rather have this q answered by a sharp (tomg, rickysteve, justin7...) if they'd be so kind

[GarbageMan]

oh yeah should've mentioned this prop is for english premier league soccer

[mathdotcom]

Since you are fond of Justin7, then I can happily refer you to his book which is available for purchase at an online retailer near you.

[GarbageMan]

got a few stats for this prop:

player x
. shots on goal per game 4.4
. scored 11 goals
. played 11 games
his team
. attempt 16 shots on goal per game
. get 6 shots on target per game
. has scored 23 goals in 11 games
opponent
. allows 17 shots on target per game
. has conceeded 18 goals in 11 games

[GarbageMan]

so i don't really think poisson can help, because of the low attempts on goal per game 4.4, would fail the 1st requirement.
2nd requirement would fail too 11/44 = 0.25. 3rd requirement is ok, ie only 1 goal at a time and finally the 4th is ok too.
so i'm guessing we would have to use another formula to price this prop, and that's where i'm getting stuck........

[donkson]

These bets are often so juiced its rarely worth it.