Halp! Guy in Hockey Forum Should Be Getting Raped but Is Making a Killing

[Romanov]

here

Guy has been posting -250 to -350 alternative totals in the NHL. Using the half point calculator he should be getting raped (up to a negative edge of 10% at times!) but he is up large!

I know his sample size is only 100 plays and I've done the math on the likelihood of this 86-14 run but is there something I am missing?

Is this guy going to get steamrolled eventually or is something broken?

[FourLengthsClear]

I am by no means an expert in NHL totals but in general terms the push probabilities used in the SBR calculator are out of date or in some cases just plain wrong! This could be part of the explanation; or it could be just variance; or it could be that the guy really knows what he is doing.

[Romanov]

I am by no means an expert in NHL totals but in general terms the push probabilities used in the SBR calculator are out of date or in some cases just plain wrong! This could be part of the explanation; or it could be just variance; or it could be that the guy really knows what he is doing.

the guy is simply averaging goals scored by both teams and adding them up... that CANNOT beat the books right?

[FourLengthsClear]

the guy is simply averaging goals scored by both teams and adding them up... that CANNOT beat the books right?

In the long run, no.

[mebaran]

the guy is simply averaging goals scored by both teams and adding them up... that CANNOT beat the books right?

Did some looking into it as well and made a post there. Tonight the fair line on over 4.5 was around -280 and he's paying -370 for it. Though, strangely, he seems to be on the "right" side most of the time with his simple model. But the fact that he's overpaying for them will kill him. It has to.

I'm just as baffled as you are..., but the book would have booted him by now had he stumbled upon something, even if it was a poorly run book.

[Romanov]

the book would have booted him by now had he stumbled upon something, even if it was a poorly run book.

He is playing on some gamebooker sight. Never heard of it so it is possible they aren't that sharp. There is no way the books could be 70 points off on these consistently

[TomG]

Do not fret because of evil men or be envious of those who do wrong; for like the grass they will soon wither, like green plants they will soon die away.

[Romanov]

Do not fret because of evil men or be envious of those who do wrong; for like the grass they will soon wither, like green plants they will soon die away.

Hopefully sooner than later. Guy is arrogant as hell

[allin1]

He is playing on some gamebooker sight. Never heard of it so it is possible they aren't that sharp. There is no way the books could be 70 points off on these consistently

gamebookers = PartyBets

different sites, different names, the same odds, same customer service, same bookmaker

[saratoga1927]

What is the title of his thread?

[Romanov]

What is the title of his thread?

it is linked in the original post. the guy is "on hiatus". in other words, he was getting lit up by the books

[mrmarket]

Hopefully sooner than later. Guy is arrogant as hell

It's a small sample with high chalk lines. People can run better (and worst) for long periods of time. If he's laying higher odds than what the true probabilities dictate he will lose eventually. Math is math.

More worrying is your attitude. How is him being arrogant relevant? Some of the best gamblers who post +EV info on the various forums are fukked up. Creating biases against them is a bad idea if you want to make money. You just have to filter their posts with your mind.