NFL Regular Season Wins Math...

[mebaran]

Found myself in a situation the other day in which I wasn't sure how to proceed. A friend of mine offered me Carolina Panthers under 4 wins even money, but it is a half game off of market value.

Assume, in this case I have two options:

Option one is taking Carolina Panthers under 4.5 wins (-130)
Option two is taking them at under 4 wins (EV).

Which option gives you a larger edge? How much are you actually giving up with that extra half game? This is obviously different than computing half points for each individual game, and my initial thoughts are that Option 1 would be better (at first glance).

Can anyone help me on the math for this one?

[mp5070]

Option #2 is better.....You dont win a half a game

[tomcowley]

Both suck dick, but 2 is sucking Ron Jeremy.

[Harmy G]

It's pretty clear that you should not be wagering on things like this... Option one is giving your "friend" an edge of around 14%...

Current Pinnacle line:
CAROLINA PANTHERS REGULAR SEASON WINS
Over 4.5 Wins -107
Under 4.5 Wins -109

[subs]

i've seen it posted that half a game is worth around/at least 50c...

dunno fo sure tho...

[That Foreign Guy]

Tell him you'll take Over 4 at -130.

[mebaran]

i've seen it posted that half a game is worth around/at least 50c...

dunno fo sure tho...

This is the kind of an answer I was looking for. I should have rephrased the question. Was looking at how much a "half-win" is worth on a moneyline. The -130 Under 4.5 price is just the first price I found (Bookmaker I believe), was meant to be a hypothetical second option, as I never really looked at any futures until my friend brought it up.

More so, how would I go about mathematically calculating half "wins" as you would creating a half-"point" NFL spread calculator? Essentially, what is that half of a win worth in futures that yousacrifice from 4 wins to 4.5 wins?

[Peregrine Stoop]

i've seen it posted that half a game is worth around/at least 50c... dunno fo sure tho...

Justin7 did a youtube video on this topic. It's a good starting point, but crummy in the long-run.

[subs]

Hi Mebaran, this is just ideas so please don't take it as well informed or expert advice or anything.

i would say u'd need lots of historical data to do this? that seems to be the problem... i wouldn't know where to get that data from in sufficient quantity to get any kind of answer.

hopefully some1 can tell us if that 50c is accurate?

maybe i'll ask around...if u find that data perhaps i'd be willing to share the cost or offer u something in return.

good luck

ooops didn't see PS's post. thanks again PS