How do I extract playoff odds from season wins

[huckleberry777]

if i layout all of the season win values from pinnacle, how do i then use those predicted wins to generate expected probabilities to make the playoffs ?

thanks in advance

[skrtelfan]

You would likely have to run a sim using the predicted wins for all of the teams in the conference.

[TomG]

figure out how many wins are needed to win the division/wildcard and then binomial it up.

[buby74]

Use the over unders to generate power ratings using solver in excel then simulate the season a 1000 or so times to see how often teams make the playoffs at least that's the approach I am going to take this weekend so I am ready for the season. I use a Bradley Terry style model although a normal distribution is equally valid

[buby74]

Here are the results of 10000 simulations of the NFl season using power ratings generated to match the over unders. The Chargers look very good value for an SB future bet

power ratingmake playoffswin divisionwin confwin superbowlArizona58.2313528688022Atlanta141.9663540151198556Baltimore133.9726343561077494Buffalo51.63646891Carolina36.4862710Chicago87.6236798017758Cincinnati35.02447520Cleveland57.014474604014Dallas112.043131746461183Denver54.6720383166Detroit97.73044123622380Green Bay197.08471724927891459Houston89.34131284525085Indianapolis128.167305662853405Jacksonville61.111206633210Kansas City89.22376131712952Miami88.1193547311038Minnesota70.814135357323New England243.68859682532771985New Orleans155.4736050891650765NY Giants126.846081972615270NY Jets155.6639326341002522Oakland61.4905453239Philadelphia185.98111613423411234Pittsburgh142.1770851091293640San Diego171.9842778471851957San Francisco61.8306628069028Seattle43.61000900114St. Louis70.53708342614341Tampa Bay81.6217486913649Tennessee57.11378830368Washington53.2509148122

[buby74]

Ok that is unintelligible maybe this is more legible.

power rating
make playoffs
win division
win conf
win superbowl
Arizona
58.2
3135
2868
80
22
Atlanta
141.9
6635
4015
1198
556
Baltimore
133.9
7263
4356
1077
494
Buffalo
51.6
364
68
9
1
Carolina
36.4
86
27
1
0
Chicago
87.6
2367
980
177
58
Cincinnati
35.0
244
75
2
0
Cleveland
57.0
1447
460
40
14
Dallas
112.0
4313
1746
461
183
Denver
54.6
720
383
16
6
Detroit
97.7
3044
1236
223
80
Green Bay
197.0
8471
7249
2789
1459
Houston
89.3
4131
2845
250
85
Indianapolis
128.1
6730
5662
853
405
Jacksonville
61.1
1120
663
32
10
Kansas City
89.2
2376
1317
129
52
Miami
88.1
1935
473
110
38
Minnesota
70.8
1413
535
73
23
New England
243.6
8859
6825
3277
1985
New Orleans
155.4
7360
5089
1650
765
NY Giants
126.8
4608
1972
615
270
NY Jets
155.6
6393
2634
1002
522
Oakland
61.4
905
453
23
9
Philadelphia
185.9
8111
6134
2341
1234
Pittsburgh
142.1
7708
5109
1293
640
San Diego
171.9
8427
7847
1851
957
San Francisco
61.8
3066
2806
90
28
Seattle
43.6
1000
900
11
4
St. Louis
70.5
3708
3426
143
41
Tampa Bay
81.6
2174
869
136
49
Tennessee
57.1
1378
830
36
8
Washington
53.2
509
148
12
2