Soccer red cards minutes statistics

JustinBieber · 07-10-11, 09:30 AM

If you google it there was already a research paper done on this. The general sense being the earlier the red card in a match the more likely a team is to lose the game.

Justin7 · 07-10-11, 10:01 AM

A red card roughly doubles the pace that the opposing team scores, but doesn't really lower that team's scoring. The exception is if that team is up 1 goal, then the distribution changes.

statnerds · 07-10-11, 10:36 AM

Are we to assume then that the Books also have this readily available information and it is already accounted for in Live Wagering?

Juret · 07-10-11, 11:03 AM

it might be an issue that a red card can lead to a penalty kick, just as a yellow card or any foul in the penalty area.

Justin7 · 07-10-11, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

Are we to assume then that the Books also have this readily available information and it is already accounted for in Live Wagering?

Never assume a book uses all information in small markets... any live or second-half market is much more likely to be weak than a game line.

statnerds · 07-10-11, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Never assume a book uses all information in small markets... any live or second-half market is much more likely to be weak than a game line.

Had a small internal dialogue as I was writing the above post. I was thinking that we would want to find a book with weak live lines, but if they are doing live lines it would behoove them to post accurate lines. So it was a bit of a circular argument with myself.

Your reply reminds of the Arena Football HT wager scenario from Conquering Risk.

Are there lower limits in place for Live and HT Futbol lines?

CHUBNUT · 07-10-11, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Never assume a book uses all information in small markets... any live or second-half market is much more likely to be weak than a game line.

agreed in general but in a red card situation.

A deaf dumb and blind local wouldnt overlay that one. If you know the mentality of the teams then correct score or next goal markets will be more advantageous than outrights, some teams will just sit on a lead but the situation is everything. I'm sure a 10 man Wolves would be more than happy with a draw at old trafford.

CHUBNUT · 07-10-11, 03:17 PM

that should read 11 man wolves

Justin7 · 07-10-11, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

agreed in general but in a red card situation.

A deaf dumb and blind local wouldnt overlay that one. If you know the mentality of the teams then correct score or next goal markets will be more advantageous than outrights, some teams will just sit on a lead but the situation is everything. I'm sure a 10 man Wolves would be more than happy with a draw at old trafford.

I should have been more specific... all my research is mainly in tournaments with a 3-game group stage, followed by knockouts. There are a lot more weird situations in league play, where teams may not have the same incentive as tournament play.

Spurspremacy · 07-11-11, 12:12 AM

thanks guys.

I may have to manually collect the stats myself. ie. clicking into each match to see if there was red cards or not.

Spurspremacy · 07-11-11, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Never assume a book uses all information in small markets... any live or second-half market is much more likely to be weak than a game line.

it applies to big markets too sometimes. especially the opening lines. but closing lines in major sports are very very hard to beat.

Dark Horse · 07-11-11, 03:00 AM

Originally posted by Spurspremacy

hi

Does anyone know where I can find the time(in minutes) of red cards occurred in soccer. www.football-data.co.uk provide statistics of cards received for teams but they do not provide the actual minutes that cards were given. Because I want to find out the effects of red cards in soccer.

many thanks

It would depend on the teams as well.

As was proven yesterday again with Brazil-USA, teams that play as a unit can exploit a numerical advantage far more effectively than teams that rely on individual class first, and have no little or no underlying team philosophy. It meant nothing that the US was a woman down against Brazil, because Brazil played without a team concept. And the US lacks individual class, but does have a pretty strong team concept.