Value of 1/2 Run in First Five Innings?

[HedgeHog]

For those that bet 1st half baseball, how valuable is a 1/2 run in first 5 inning betting? Assume two subsets:

Low scoring with 4 runs or less scored, what % of games are tied after five innings?

High scoring with 5 runs or more scored, what % of games are tied after five innings?

Thanks in advance, HH

[Justin7]

I would guess that the moneyline will affect this. The closer to Pick'em the game is, the more valuable that half-run will be.

Have you read "The book" by Tango? He gives charts on scoring odds per inning. You could generate a 4.5 or 5 inning spreadsheet based on ML/Total, and figure this out for any scenario in about 2 hours.

[FreeFall]

You could also just use drop downs at 5Dimes if you really wanna be lazy. Not sure how precise of a number were looking for here.

[BigFish]

You could also just use drop downs at 5Dimes if you really wanna be lazy. Not sure how precise of a number were looking for here.

Definitely the lazy man's method for guestimating the value of this and many other adjusted spreads; and I'm guilty of using it whenever possible.

[That Foreign Guy]

If you collect enough dropdown info I think you're going to get close.

[HedgeHog]

I appreciate the advice given. I've been tracking 1st half results the past month or so and see an extremely strong correlation with the under and +.5 run. Of games where four or less runs were scored in the first half, 68 out of 255 (26.67%) were tied after five innings. Games with five or more runs in the first half were tied only 17 of 204 times (8.33%). I was wondering if this closely matches past seasons' results.

[dochall2u]

thanks for some good info.