Possible arbitrage in NFL futures

[buby74]

I saw this on the SBR sportsbook NFL futures prices

Superbowl
Chicago +2800
Detroit +3500

NFC championship

Chicago +1500
Detroit +1200

NFC North
Chicago +450
Detroit +450

Either
a) the prices are all correct in that the bears are less likely to win the championship than the lions although they are much more likely to win the superbowl and they are equally likely to win the division. This could reflect a non-linear ranking of the teams.
or
b) two of these three prices are wrong and can be possibly be taken advantage of.




Now possibility a) could be correct as the teams do have slightly different schedules and if the bears have an easier schedule this could account for them being more likely to win the division then their nfc odds suggest. Although looking at the schedules, 14 of 16 games are the same, with the lions playing Dallas and SF while the bears play the eagles and seahawks so the bears on paper have a harder schedule. (playing the winers of the NFC east and west rather than the 3rd place teams). Also the bears could be much better against AFC teams than the Lions and so would be more favoured in the superbowl. Possibly weather and scheduling could play a role depending when the bears play particular teams in the cold of a chicago winter but I think this is unlikely.

So if b) is the correct answer how could you take advantage of this discrepency.

Options are
1)the superbowl odds are correct (bears better than lions) in which case the bears NFC odds look attractive as do their nfc north odds
2)the NFC odds are correct (lions better than bears) in which case the lions superbowl odds are amazing and their nfc north odds look good as well
3) The divisonal odds are correct(both teams equal) in which case the bears in the nfc and the lions in the superbowl are worth a look.

As a general principle what is the best way to analyse and exploit this type of discrepency between odds that are derivatives of each other?

[Jontheman]

I'd say that you've done the first part of the analysis - the odds are not pure derivatives of each other as there are different factors in a purely regular season bet vs a bet involving playoff success, schedule being the most obvious. Therefore it would be possible for team A to have higher odds to win the division but lower odds to get to the Superbowl than Team B without it being automatically an error, or there being any value present.

I'd say the NFC North market is basically fairly weakly correlated in comparison to the other two The Superbowl vs Championship looks like an pricing error in some form although I personally wouldn't fancy any of those odds.

[underthe total]

the numbers could have moved based on action

it is very difficult to get a line advantage on big money lines

[ThaWoj]

bears +450 to win division seems 100% wrong.

they should be about +180 to about +260

[underthe total]

from what i i have learned and read

imo

there is no advantage to those money lines

i see what you are thinking if they win the conference they will winn the division

but they are seperate bets and are not as related as you think

[LT Profits]

bears +450 to win division seems 100% wrong.

they should be about +180 to about +260

No the price is right because the Packers are better (scary thought) and the Bears probably won't make the playoffs this year with their schedule. Note that the Lions and Bears are at equal odds, I personally think Detroit finishes second.

[underthe total]

i like detroit

[agharah1]

Indeed, these odds are somewhat irrelevant because I don't see either sweeping the Packers, which is probably what you're going to have to do to win the division this year.