help with historical pinny lines/juice for bases

[lovesbaseball1]

Hey all,

I am working on some detailed backtesting of a baseball model and need some help with pinnacle lines/juice. I'm looking at from years 2003-2010.

The issue I have is I only have the juice for the favorite, so I don't know the underdog line which is obviously crucial for backtesting. I could guess, of course, but I want to be as precise as possible.

It appears through my investigation that Pinny moneylines were 10 cents from '03-'06 and 8 cents from '07-'09 (they have been 6 cents from 2010 and I don't need help with the current structure). Of course, the bigger the favorite, the larger the spread from favorite to dog, so just calling it 8 or 10 cents doesn't get me the amount of accuracy I want. For instance, the 8 cent line appears to be 8 cents all the way to -186/+178, but I have a few gaps in my data, (and know nothing of the 10 cent line structure) and would love to fill in with someone who knows what the data was for sure.

For totals, it seems that Pinny had a 20 cent line from 2003-sept 21, 2006, and from there on has the current 10 cent structure. For runlines, from what I can tell it was 20 cents from 2003-sept 21, 2006, then 10 cents from sept 22 2006-2009, and an 8 cent line since then.

Anyone with detailed knowledge of the juice breakdown for these categories please let me know. I am willing to pay for this data.

[TomG]

If you trust the accuracy of your data, you are probably better off backing into the underdog lines than trusting the accuracy of someone else's data.

I think it's probably better (and easier) to just assume something like a 1.5%-2% vig for MLs, a 2.5% vig on totals and ~2% for runlines. Then you can divide up the vig and use the known favorite line as your reference point in creating the underdog's line.

[LT Profits]

Just go to covers and look up the odds for the opposing teams for a few games at various odds levels