high vig lines

[gilly6864]

bookmakers money lines on baseball games are always well above market price for some reason..if you take the vig out of there lines then there lines don't look so bad compared to other books non vig lines...why does every book have different amount of vigs lines on games (ex 5 cent, 1o cent, 15 cent)?? bookmaker by far has to lead the way in this.

so when you are trying to BTCL by calculating lines compared to market lines do you only look at no vig lines? it would seem that any no vig line is gonna beat your price with vig added onto it. i was wondering if anyone would have any input into this..thanks

[That Foreign Guy]

If you're not beating the no vig closing line you're probably not winning.

[jgilmartin]

To expand upon what TFG said, consider -110 lines, which have an implied probability of 52.38%. The no-vig line is +100, which has an implied probability of 50%. If a market was perfectly efficient, each side of matchup that closed at -110 / -110 would win 50% of the time. Therefore, if you got -105 on one of the sides and then it moved to -110, you would have beaten the VIG closer but not the NO VIG closer. Your bet is still -EV because you would have paid the price of something with a 51.22% implied probability when its actual probability was 50%.