March Madness game matchups

[dogman]

Wondering if anyone can help- me here. With the matchups between one team vs. another and the wager is who will have more wins in the touney, how would you set the odds.

Let's say you think one team wiill have 2 wins and the other team will lose their first game. The odds are -200 on the team you think will win more. How would you determine if the odds warrent a play on the favorite. Is there a way to once you determine the wins for each team to set up a +EV wager.

[That Foreign Guy]

Work out the outcomes that win it for you and what the chance of each happening is, work out the outcomes that lose it for you and the chance of each happening.

eg (you like A and fade B)

AW BL + A WW BWL + A WWW BWWL
vs
AL and BW + AWL BWW + AWWL BWWW

This converted to total 100% by win% / (win%+lose%) should give you the break even odds for each (you will need to project R2 and R3 money lines). Another option is to find / make odds for each team to go out in each round and combine those outcomes.

[dogman]

THG, just wanted to make sure I understand what you are saying. If I have one team winning 2 games-WWL and the other team winning 0 games--L the math would be 66% for the winning team and 0% for the losing team so 66/34 would get -191 for break even odds on this wager. Does that seem right?

[dogman]

Let's take one game for an example in this team vs team matchup. Kentucky odds-230
Wisconsin odds+190

I have Kentucky winning 2 games in the tourney and Wisconsin losing it's first game.

Is betting Kentucky a +EV wager at -230

[That Foreign Guy]

No.

Calculate the odds of Kentucky winning its first game AND wisconsin losing.
Calculate the odds of Kentucky winning its first two games AND wisconsin winning first losing second
Calculate the odds of Kentucky winning first three AND wisconing winning first second losing third.

[dogman]

Thanks, got it.