Question

[Gemoka]

I see a team that is +150 and I think its real odds should be +122 what edge does that give me?

I see a team that is +150 and I think its real odds should be +100 what edge does that give me?

whats the formula please?

[subs]

not enough info. u need both lines and ur estimate.

1st find no vig %.

if x is fav line and y is dog line and Z is ur estimate.

do (X*-1)/X+100 this gives u the vig X%

100/Y+100 gives u dog vig Y%

then divide each % by sum of both %s to find no vig line.

so X%/X%+Y% = X% no vig line

and Y%/Y%+X% = Y% no vig line.

do not do this for ur line because there is no vig added to ur line.

subtract ur line from the no vig line. there is ur edge.

good luck

[Gemoka]

thanks

[CHUBNUT]

of course in reality your opinion is obviously lacking some critical info to be that far out. nearing 3% diff the rivets start pinging in the submarine

[FourLengthsClear]

For you first example

100/222 = 0.4504 (probability of your bet hitting based on your own calculated odds)
divided by
100/250 = 0.4000 (implied probability of the line you took)

minus 1

i.e. (0.4504 divided by 0.4000) = 1.1261
minus 1 = an +EV of 12.61%

[subs]

thanks for the points


think i'd better share em with FLC

good luck