Predicting Season Wins (MLB)

**Justin7** · 03-02-11, 03:54 PM

Look at this year's roster. Estimate how many runs this roster will score this year, and how many runs the roster, as a whole, will allow.

Then use pythag.

**Boner_18** · 03-09-11, 09:16 AM

Excellent. Thank you. In projecting runs scored/runs allowed is it ok to use projected PAs for a hitter/pitcher when that player is traded?

Player X is projected for 432 PAs in a major publication and is listed as CWS... he will play for NYY this season, do I need to somehow reduce PAs? Is it within a safe margin of error to simply use the projection?

**Justin7** · 03-09-11, 12:45 PM

Tough question. It's an estimate.

Make sure NYY's overall plate appearances add up, whatever you do with it. If NYY "acquired" 432 PAs but only gave up 100, other players will get fewer PAs, or the traded player will.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 03-09-11, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by Boner_18

What is the best method for predicting season wins in MLB? I understand how to use a binomial to price a certain amount of o/u wins but am unsure where to start in generating my own numbers. Is last season predictive? If so, what sorts of adjustments most influence the total wins?

simulate hundreds of seasons rolling dice on Statis Pro Baseball from Avalon Hill

**byronbb** · 03-09-11, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop

simulate hundreds of seasons rolling dice on Statis Pro Baseball from Avalon Hill

lol I thought you were serious until I googled..........

**OnlyMayo** · 03-09-11, 09:33 PM

Cardinals = 162 regular season wins!!

**threeg5** · 03-09-11, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by OnlyMayo

Cardinals = 162 regular season wins!!

Sounds Like a great fade to me

3g5

**LineKrusher** · 03-21-11, 10:04 AM

Cardinals will be lucky to get 62 wins in 2011...