Dunkel Lines

[failheart]

Are the Dunkel Lines pretty close to being right on?

[RickySteve]

You might be able to grind a small profit vs. openers if you know what you're doing.

[alling]

awful in nfl. 45% ATS

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/nflresults.php

[stevenash]

I prefer Sagarin

[ScreaminPain]

I havent attempted to analyze Dunkel's data for NBA or CBB, but I have data from StatFox and Pomeroy and Sagarin. None of these are world beaters as far as ATS results are concerned. Here is what I have for January.

I have arbititrarly used a difference of 3.1 Pts. as a differencial from the "posted line". This is in addition to whatever each has allowed for HCA. Also note, that I ONLY considered plays against the spread.

StatFox: 110 Plays, record 57-53, 51.8%
Sagarin: 100 Plays, record 54-46, 54.0%
Pomeroy: 98 Plays, record 52-46, 53.6%

I have noticed some correlations that may help. If you combine a couple of pairings a higher % results. Using the same criteria as above, but requiring that BOTH agree on the same play, the results improve:

Pomeroy and Sagarin: 40 Plays, record 22-18, 55%
Sagarin and StatFox: 32 Plays, record 19-13, 59.4%

*- I did not track the combination of Pomeroy and Statfox in my data

As you can see, certain correlations reveal a higher %. If I were better at Excel, I'd probably find a way to import Dan Curry and Dunkel's work into a spreadsheet. I think there exists some correlations that could be expoited.

Sorry to stray from the OP's question, but I could see where he was headed and thought this may be useful.

Good Luck on your action...

[bignick410]

Hey I stubled acoss this and was wondering if anyone had any spread sheets on sagarin this YTD was thinkg of doing a lil project
if not does anyone know weher to find old ratings the only ones onm the site are the current weeks

[Miz]

they usually get priced into the market with far more weight than they should carry, and I love them for it

[easyliving]

checked them out for college baskettball last year for a while. didn't help at all don't even bother looking at the lines.

[bignick410]

Yea I wasn't going to use just dunkel to make play but I was more or less taking the idea that screaming pain had and changing it a lil... Instead of picking games to rating indexes have in comin I would take the weekly team ratings of a few indexes and make it one rating equally balancing the ratings if each team then using those rating generated to make plays

[bignick410]

Or at least track it for the season