When trying to calculate assists per game, i've been taking what I believe to be the estimated APG for a player and adjusting it by using the league APG average and the defense they are playing. However, I wanted to include the pace component as well but it feels like I am over doing it. After I got my adjusted APG number I was going to adjust it again by using the estimated score from the vegas line. I feel like I am calculating an adjustment twice because the estimated score would account for the defense they are playing. It just seems like there is some overlap there.
The other question that I have is once I have my APG number, would it be appropriate to combine it with my PPG and use it in the Poisson calculation assuming I adjust the PPG for the Poisson. That would be for PPG + APG props.
The other question that I have is once I have my APG number, would it be appropriate to combine it with my PPG and use it in the Poisson calculation assuming I adjust the PPG for the Poisson. That would be for PPG + APG props.