NBA prop adjustment?

[vicwootn]

We all know the larger the spread the more likely a game is to be blown out. This means starters will play less minutes while bench players will play more.

What would be a good way to factor this into a simple NBA points prop model? Does anyone have historical data that may support adjusting X percent of minutes based on every point in the spread?

[bookie]

It's not clear to me if by "points prop" you mean totals, or player performance props.

[vicwootn]

sorry. an nba player's expected points for a game.

[vicwootn]

bump.