NFL Teaser

sharpcat · 01-07-11, 08:41 PM

Because only 2 games in the last 10 years have ended in a tie. More importantly a playoff game can not end in a tie at all.

Basically you are paying the same price for a 5 point teaser as you would for a 6 point teaser and on top of that you are only crossing 1 key number.

FourLengthsClear · 01-07-11, 08:58 PM

http://www.marasoft.com/nfl-margin-victory.html

The above is out of date but shows historical winning margins in the NFL. As Sharpcat mentions 0 is a dead number.

As a simple exercise and forgetting the spread for a moment, just work out the probability of a 6 point teaser hitting from +4.5 as compared to a Wong teaser.

dngf · 01-08-11, 01:15 AM

Thanks, makes sense I appreciate the link, I can see that you pick up a lot more between 2 and 8 than you do between 0 and 4.

StackinGreen · 01-08-11, 02:22 AM

Forgetting the fact that Green Bay is gonna win easy on Sunday, seriously, reconsider the Eagles + points anyway. There is NO chance that the Eagles blow the Packers out. Zip Zero Zilch. None.

The Packers can and will win by double digits, on the other hand. Just warning you to think twice.

subs · 01-08-11, 06:39 AM

there are some situations, with some books, where crossing the 0 is nicely +EV. not sure how long u will last there though

prop · 01-08-11, 07:28 AM

zero is between both threes, if I give you +120 on 7 point teasers would you not cross the zero because it's more like a 6 point teaser? Of course not would do it all day. The don't cross the zero as some golden rule is silly, the reason people suggest this is because at most books with the prices offered cross the zero is generally offered at poor value.

StackinGreen · 01-08-11, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by prop

zero is between both threes, if I give you +120 on 7 point teasers would you not cross the zero because it's more like a 6 point teaser? Of course not would do it all day. The don't cross the zero as some golden rule is silly, the reason people suggest this is because at most books with the prices offered cross the zero is generally offered at poor value.

Great point(s)

wquine · 01-08-11, 09:06 AM

The points about crossing the zero are true, but it doesn't mean there's still not value in the play.

SparJMU · 01-10-11, 12:30 PM

Hey American Hero, can you give an example of +EV when cross 0 on a teaser. I am very curious.

LT Profits · 01-10-11, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Hey American Hero, can you give an example of +EV when cross 0 on a teaser. I am very curious.

I know of one.

LT Profits · 01-10-11, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Hey American Hero, can you give an example of +EV when cross 0 on a teaser. I am very curious.

You have a PM

Justin7 · 01-10-11, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Hey American Hero, can you give an example of +EV when cross 0 on a teaser. I am very curious.

If you tease a -3.5 favorite to +3.5 on a 2-team 7-point teaser at -110. It is probably +EV at slightly higher juice as well.

SparJMU · 01-10-11, 02:00 PM

Thanks a lot for the response. One more teaser question for you......

Is there any point where a 13 point teaser at -130 is +EV? This is the single week every year where I get tempted to play a 13 point teaser, but I am never very confident because it seems like you always end up wasting a lot of points.

Justin7 · 01-10-11, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Thanks a lot for the response. One more teaser question for you......

Is there any point where a 13 point teaser at -130 is +EV? This is the single week every year where I get tempted to play a 13 point teaser, but I am never very confident because it seems like you always end up wasting a lot of points.

13 point teasers are great in preseason. I haven't found many other times to play them.

SparJMU · 01-10-11, 02:52 PM

I had a hunch that would be your response. They are so tempting when all the #1 and #2 seeds are playing at home, although I know the value isn't really there.

I assume you like to tease underdogs in the preseason? Any specific subsets that have the highest value?

subs · 01-10-11, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by prop

zero is between both threes, if I give you +120 on 7 point teasers would you not cross the zero because it's more like a 6 point teaser? Of course not would do it all day. The don't cross the zero as some golden rule is silly, the reason people suggest this is because at most books with the prices offered cross the zero is generally offered at poor value.

dude pay attention to the gold being offered above...

try to find situations where somehow in effect u get more than the points u are paying for...

i hope that you entire balance of points is going to LT. dude is a very nice and helpful man... who just made u some serious coin.

and Peregrine Stoop below just gave u the secret to success.... search and read it is all here

Peregrine Stoop · 01-10-11, 05:59 PM

dear OP,
learn how to search the forums yourself. The rest of the replies didn't help you nearly as much as mine.

SparJMU · 01-10-11, 08:29 PM

Thank you very much guys. I am more than happy to send points over for the all of your generosity.

Peregrine I am very happy to search the forums myself, I just don't always know where to go. The Think Tank has been a very valuable resource for me so I try to sign on and ask questions as often as possible.

That Foreign Guy · 01-10-11, 08:44 PM

Google using the site:sportsbookreview.com parameter, this will restrict your results to only SBR pages (most likely forum threads)