Are posters here really wagering on GUT INSTINCT?

[SBR Lou]

Are others actually making picks without analyzing data, and simply obliging a gut instinct? I will look at games from a value perspective, using spreadsheets, lineshopping, things of that nature.

I would expect such from Joe public, but not from the majority of those who spend countless hours at a handicapping forum. Why do I have the feeling this is just some joke to fit in with jj's degenerate personality?

[pat venditto]

gut instinct is for the squares dot cam

no edge dot cam

[diogee]

I have done that in the past when I had no idea what I was doing...I have only been in the Basketball game for 2 months and still trying to get the feel of capping the game.

[diogee]

pat is right... square betting dot com ...

[ChuteBoxe]

I hope not. Soon to be "buried.com".

[Jcoz]

What qualifies as gut instict? I bet College football for the last 2 years on nothing but watching games and religous following of recruiting...so I guess I would definitley qualify as a square. Hit at 66% for the season last year and lost my ass.

Finally said something is wrong with that and bought some books and found some sites online. Just found this forum today(had used the review section before).

I also picked my games after looking at the lines...pretty much violated every smart money rule you can find.

I'm almost nervous for the year coming up, I will have multiple books for the first time, use a kelly-ish system and get off the parlays and teasers....but f-ing with the way i pick games actually has me twitching...watch me employ all right bankroll tactics this time and sink in capping the games...

[Willie Bee]

Aw, c'mon. Every bet winds up being your gut instinct in the end.

[SBR Lou]

Aw, c'mon. Every bet winds up being your gut instinct in the end.

If it wasn't your birthday I'd get Donjuan and Durito on the line and supply them with however much ammunition they require.

[raiders72002]

What Willie said for the most part.

[jackpot269]

until i found sbr I was Joe public I've learned a lot the last 7 months. Thanks guys!!

[Louisvillekid1]

Alot of my handicapping comes from watching the games. . . I use what I already know mostly to make my picks. I'll spend some time looking over stats/matchups as well as traveling/schedule issues along w/ injuries/weather and such. to confirm a play.

I don't care about trends or any of that sh*t,well some trends are meaningful but most have nothing to do w/ the game because I don't care if a team is 9-1 ATS last 3 years while playing on a sunday in conference on the road. All the numbers that are track you can always find some crazy trend that looks good. I know the game , I know the players, I can make an educated guess to predict the final score.

If I have an edge against the line Ill make a play.

If that's what your considering 'gut instinct' then my answer is yes.

[imgv94]

I think gut instinct is part of handicapping. Some people use it more than others.. But everyone uses it at least a little bit.

LK1 some trends are good.. Some are meaningless I agree

[chandler1981]

I make bigger bets if my capping matches my gut instinct. Instinct definitely contributes to determining my bet size. But I don't look at the lines in the newspaper and say, ooohh, Lakers are only laying 15! They gotta cover that.

[BuddyBear]

I agree with IMGV here. Yesterday provided a perfect situation that illustrates this point.

The Pistons were playing the Clippers last night. It was the last game of the slate so there was bound to be a lot of chasers. Anyway, all books were showing either +8 or +8.5. Meanwhile, another book was showing +10 (-105) at the same exact time. I knew that this should have been an automatic bet on the LAC...2 pts off the market line. But then I remembered just how bad LAC is. There was something inside of me (my gut) that prevented me from betting it (a qualitative assessment).

Anyway, just about everyone uses both but for many, they favor one over the other--usually the "gut" part of betting.

But, really, quantitative considerations should come before qualitative evaluations. Even though "I won" by not betting LAC last night...the reality is that type of bet (beating the betting market by 2pts) is a great bet and really should be placed whenever possible regardless.

[babaoriley]

If it wasn't your birthday I'd get Donjuan and Durito on the line and supply them with however much ammunition they require.

Now that's some funny sh!t.

To answer the question, yes, I bet on instinct at times. Numbers are 90% of the equation, but sometimes a line just feels wrong, and I bet the opposite side on instinct, throwing capping out the window. Also, on prop bets (especially those regarding individual NBA players, I'm always instinct). If Kobe seems pissed, I'm all over his total P+R+A or whatever. Likewise, Rasheed Wallace always seems to hit his prop bets against good teams. No clue why.

[babaoriley]

I agree with IMGV here. Yesterday provided a perfect situation that illustrates this point.

The Pistons were playing the Clippers last night. It was the last game of the slate so there was bound to be a lot of chasers. Anyway, all books were showing either +8 or +8.5. Meanwhile, another book was showing +10 (-105) at the same exact time. I knew that this should have been an automatic bet on the LAC...2 pts off the market line. But then I remembered just how bad LAC is. There was something inside of me (my gut) that prevented me from betting it (a qualitative assessment).

Anyway, just about everyone uses both but for many, they favor one over the other--usually the "gut" part of betting.

But, really, quantitative considerations should come before qualitative evaluations. Even though "I won" by not betting LAC last night...the reality is that type of bet (beating the betting market by 2pts) is a great bet and really should be placed whenever possible regardless.

Great example.

P.S. Who had them at +10?

[SBR Lou]

I was a little sarcastic in my original post.

I do use my gut instinct situationally, sometimes I don't use it enough. I think once a handicapper considers both sides of the coin, has done the right amount of analysis, he will (or at least I do) be pulled one way or another even if that goes against some of the numbers.

[MrX]

I think gut instinct is part of handicapping. Some people use it more than others.. But everyone uses it at least a little bit.

I don't use it. Not even a little bit.

[imgv94]

You're lying to yourself.

[The HG]

educated guessing dat cam

[MrX]

You're lying to yourself.

I'm not lying to myself in the least. I make every single that my model tells me to.

1. Computer prints out daily bets.
2. I place bets.
3. Profit.

Explain where where my gut instinct comes into play.

[imgv94]

Love to see those plays posted..

[Ganchrow]

Love to see those plays posted..

And I'm sure for enough money he'd be willing to do just that.

[imgv94]

I can careless myself not trying to be a dick but I learned a long time ago that everyone who do NOT post plays win.

[The HG]

I'm not lying to myself in the least. I make every single that my model tells me to.

1. Computer prints out daily bets.
2. I place bets.
3. Profit.

Explain where where my gut instinct comes into play.

Post the friggin plays dat cam

[imgv94]

He won't..

[durito]

I'm not particularly sure why anyone that works exceptionally hard at something, should give that product away for free on the internet.

[imgv94]

So posting plays equals giving a product away?

[The HG]

I'm not particularly sure why anyone that works exceptionally hard at something, should give that product away for free on the internet.

Well he cares enough to read a thread about gut instinct and then to write posts about how he doesn't do it.

I would be fine with him posting his picks after the games have started, doesn't matter to me, I will trust him.

And I give my comedy away for free on the internet. Why? I don't know, but I do. It's an enjoyable labor of course, but a labor nonetheless. People give valuable sh*t away for free on the net all time, for a whole host of reasons.

post the friggin plays dot cam

[NEP Dynasty]

Post your plays guy. Don't BS.

[MrX]

I can careless myself not trying to be a dick but I learned a long time ago that everyone who do NOT post plays win.

Hey, I'm just trying to give a little back to the community. In this case, by letting those who care know that it is possible to beat MLB with a strictly mathematical model. Just knowing that is pretty valuable information for those seeking to develop a model.

Of course just my saying it doesn't make it true. It's up to those who have read my posts to decide how credible I am. I've always tried to help answer good questions, especially ones that happen to involve one of the very few subjects I'd consider myself an expert in.

What I'm not interested in is doing someone else's work for them. If you honestly don't understand why someone who worked for years developing and refining a model that meets all of his needs would keep the fruits of his labor to himself, then I question what kind of world you have been living in.

I try to help when I can. It's not often that my help is needed by anyone here. There are posters more knowledgeable and generous with their time than I in just about every subject.

But when I do chime in, I go out of my way to not make the already low signal to noise ratio any worse. I don't really appreciate your brushing off of my posts with a "you're kidding yourself."

If you find something I say hard to believe, just ask me some questions about it. I've always treated you with respect on here. You don't always make it easy.

[durito]

Post your plays guy. Don't BS.

Send me your next paycheck.

[imgv94]

MrX,

You are probably doing a great job with whatever you are doing. I'm not personally familar with your formula/software or whatever is the right word to describe it. I'm just going with what I've witnessed over the last few years on this forum and others. People claiming like you did in this thread that their making huge bank then when they eventually post selections they end up with less than stellar results.

The one thing that seperates you from them is the fact that you have never appeared to be an attention whore. So sorry for my lack of postivity on this matter but if you've seen what I've seen I think you would have a similar observation.

You are a good guy and I wish you plenty of luck with your endeavors. I'm still new to betting baseball so any advice you can offer would much appreciated..

GL

[MrX]

So sorry for my lack of postivity on this matter...

No problem.

...but if you've seen what I've seen I think you would have a similar observation.

I have seen what you've seen and my observation is a little different. Yes, there are braggarts who can not back up their claims, but there are also some clearly knowledgeable individuals who get attacked for not posting plays. I'd be really surprised if some of them weren't winning players.

You have to understand that there is little motivation for a successful handicapper to hand out picks here. Frankly, there are a lot of jerks here, so even if I were feeling generous and community-minded I wouldn't just hand out picks willy-nilly.

You are a good guy and I wish you plenty of luck with your endeavors. I'm still new to betting baseball so any advice you can offer would much appreciated..

GL

Thanks.

My advice would be to find metrics that are more predictive of future performance than the stats everyone else uses and develop an efficient way to track them throughout the course of seasons. Once you do that, you have a some options on what to do with your better information.

[JEMFS]

Over the past seven years I have based all of my picks from analysis of trends and stats only. Prior to that I tried to use my gut and got burned more often than not.

I do know and have read about cappers that just seem to have that ability to smell value in a game, I'm just not one of them.

If following your gut seems to work for you...great, if not, try to take emotion out of the equation and start researching the numbers.