Understanding Kelly

[FreeFall]

Currently there is this line at pinnacle;

CAR +1.5 -180
SJS -1.5 +165

@ SIA it's

CAR +1.5 -160
SJS -1.5 +135

Naturally I wanna bet my side at SIA, since I can't arb as I don't have money at PIN.

I then use kelly and get these results;



b = 1.625 ( which is -160 turned into decimal odds )
p = .6301 ( which is from pinnacles closing line )
q = .3699

I then plug these numbers in to get .402469 . Is this saying that on my 1.4734% edge I should really be betting 40 percent of my bankroll? Where did I go wrong?

Thanks for your help,

FF

[Blax0r]

If you truly do believe that the probability of you winning the bet is 63.01%, then yes you should -theoretically- bet the kelly percentage on it (in order to optimize winnings).

also, your "b" value is not quite right; it should be .625. A favorite should not be paying out more than 1...

[roasthawg]

Watch out when using Pinny's line as the "true" line... better off using Matchbook's.

[Blax0r]

I re-did the kelly for your case; you should bet about 3.8% (use the correct payout value for b) of your bankroll according to Kelly.

[Peregrine Stoop]

OP, SBR has a nice kelly calculator in its tools