Just Made Two -EV Prop Bets

[SBR Lou]

Pats To Win By Exactly 14 : 12-1
Pats To Win By Exactly 17 : 25-1

.5 unit on each

SB future pending also at Pats -120. I am not hedging that whatsoever. I can't go through Super Bowl weekend without betting on a prop or two, so those are what I've came up with. Feel free to tell me what an utter fool I am.

Oh and, Heads at -101.

[HedgeHog]

I saw these lines at Bookmaker, too-but only played 17 at 25-1. The 14 at 12-1 seemed low to me. I used Ganch's NFL push frequencies and found that 14 happens at .049 (fair value = 19-1) and 17 occurs .0455 (fair value = 21-1).

[Dark Horse]

Took me a half hour to go over all the props. Talk about overdosing. Not playing any. F*ck it.

[SBR Lou]

Took me a half hour to go over all the props. Talk about overdosing. Not playing any. F*ck it.

I actually did the same a couple times. Then today I woke up, went to check the lines again, and said screw it. Probably wouldn't have put the bets down had I woken up more, but sometimes i do that. not much risked so it's no big deal but nothing really jumped out at me this year.

[donjuan]

I saw these lines at Bookmaker, too-but only played 17 at 25-1. The 14 at 12-1 seemed low to me. I used Ganch's NFL push frequencies and found that 14 happens at .049 (fair value = 19-1) and 17 occurs .0455 (fair value = 21-1).

The push percentages you're using are only useful when the point spread is on or very close to that number. You'd be a lot more accurate if you looked at all point spreads close to 12 (assuming you think the current spread on the SB is fairly efficient) and then saw how often those games landed on 17.

[HedgeHog]

The push percentages you're using are only useful when the point spread is on or very close to that number. You'd be a lot more accurate if you looked at all point spreads close to 12 (assuming you think the current spread on the SB is fairly efficient) and then saw how often those games landed on 17.

So what are your fair values for NE winning by 14 and 17? I would think that NE 14 @ 12-1 is -Ev while NE 17 @ 25-1 is +Ev. If not Ganch's Push Frequencies, what else would you use to quantify these offers in a timely manner.

[donjuan]

So what are your fair values for NE winning by 14 and 17? I would think that NE 14 @ 12-1 is -Ev while NE 17 @ 25-1 is +Ev. If not Ganch's Push Frequencies, what else would you use to quantify these offers in a timely manner.

You'd take all of the games with closing spreads of 10.5-14.5 points and see how often they landed on the 17.

[pico]

what was the props odds for giants win by 3? i think that is a +EV bet