Middling Question

[JohnGalt2341]

I'm brand new to Middling so go easy on me. I made my first Middling Bet a few weeks ago. Here it is, I got:

Minnesota +6 at YouWager and,
New Orleans -3 1/2 at 5Dimes. Both for $100 at -110.

Is this a good bet? I realize New Orleans has to Win by 4,5, or 6 for me to make any money. And those numbers aren't the best. Would I have been better off ONLY taking the New Orleans bet? What about buying 1/2 points? Any help is appreciated. Thanks!

[Justin7]

What percent of the time do you think New Orleans will win by exactly 4, 5 or 6? You can use SBR's half-point calculator to estimate this.

How often do you have to hit the middle to make money? (Counting the "6" as only half a middle.)

[NY Playa]

thats a tight middle, pass!

[Justin7]

I haven't studied it, but I bet it is slightly +EV.
I am guessing the 4 and 5 hit about 4%. The 6 hits about 3.5%. So the middle hits about 5.75%, which is much more than the you need to show a long term profit. Do this 1000 times, and watch your bankroll slowly grow. But verify the push percentages before firing, and manage risk properly.

[RonPaul2008]

It might be +EV, but i'm not sure i'd bother. Figure a a 4 middle is worthwhile for 10 cents, 5 middle for 2 cents, and 6 side for 5 cents.

[JohnGalt2341]

Thanks Justin and Ron. After I made the bet and thought about it more I figured it was SLIGHTLY +EV at best. Thanks for the confirmation. I'll probably stay away from Middling for the most part unless I find something that is too hard to pass on.

[mathdotcom]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/499911-very-common-misconception-among-posters-middles.html

[skrtelfan]

Ship it!

[JohnGalt2341]

I nailed 'em both. Beginners luck I guess.

[roasthawg]

I nailed 'em both. Beginners luck I guess.