Paging Ganch: Re: kelly

[20Four7]

So I have a play which I think I have a 5% edge. I bet it full kelly with 1K bankroll. Later in the day (this bet still hasn't cleared) where I have 3 bets one with a 2% edge and the others with a 3% edge. I know the difference isn't much but how do you handle this? I know you bet a little less if you have simulatanous bets if you put it all into your calculator. Can you just assume that each bet is individual regardless of how many bets you end up with?

Thanks

[Ganchrow]

So I have a play which I think I have a 5% edge. I bet it full kelly with 1K bankroll. Later in the day (this bet still hasn't cleared) where I have 3 bets one with a 2% edge and the others with a 3% edge. I know the difference isn't much but how do you handle this? I know you bet a little less if you have simulatanous bets if you put it all into your calculator. Can you just assume that each bet is individual regardless of how many bets you end up with?

Thanks

Call the 2% bet "Bet A", and call the two 3% bets "Bet B" and "Bet C".


So here's what I'll assume:

1. All 4 bets are at -110
2. The initial (5% edge) bet is no longer available for a parlay
3. You bet the initial bet at full (single) Kelly for $55.00.
4. The remaining 3 bets may all be parlayed at true parlay odds.
5. The outcome of all 4 bets are independent of one another
6. There are no minimum bets sizes.

Initial Bet $55.00
Bet A: $20.51
Bet B: $31.11
Bet C: $31.11
Parlay of Bet A & Bet B: $0.70
Parlay of Bet A & Bet C: $0.70
Parlay of Bet B & Bet C: $1.07
Parlay of Bet A & Bet B & Bet C: $0.02

Only straight bets:
Initial Bet $55.00
Bet A: $21.89
Bet B: $32.86
Bet C: $32.86