Tonights teaser angle

[Bill the cop]

Senior Member



Tonights teaser angle
I posted this over at SFW today, thought I'd share it with people here.


I've got NE-1 as the first leg in numerous 3 team teasers. I also bought back the Rams on the +275 ML to even out my postion. My objective was to get 2 team teasers at less than even money. Here's how I did it:

NE-1 as first leg in the 3 teamers at +180, let's say $100/$280
Buy the Rams ML for $36 that pays $135 ($136 invested)
Rams win, cash ML bet, essentially BE on bets
NE wins >1, you now have $136 at risk to win $144 on the remaining 2 teamer, or less than even money.

Yes, NE COULD win by exactly 1 (about a 2% chance), lose your ML bets, 3 teamers reduced to 2 teamers, not the end of the world, I'll live with it

GLTA

[djiddish98]

Is there any edge with the Rams +275? Why not just ride out the teaser as opposed to diluting your edge?

[HedgeHog]

STL +330 at 5-Dimes or +338 at Pinny (for non-US)

[Bill the cop]

Is there any edge with the Rams +275? Why not just ride out the teaser as opposed to diluting your edge?

I generally don't bet Favs preseason unless I have an ulterior motive. In this case my motive was to get a better price on the dog teasers (I really have no opinion on the game, just a means to an end).

[Bill the cop]

STL +330 at 5-Dimes or +338 at Pinny (for non-US)

Of course, the higher the ML, the better the bet! But they're hanging -7.5 now, so do the math and see where you stand.

[Justin7]

Bill
Doesn't the one push more often in Nflx than Reg season?

[Bill the cop]

Bill
Doesn't the one push more often in Nflx than Reg season?

Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner (fishing). The problem with push ATS numbers in NFLX is the sample size for individual numbers is so small. How often does the one push ATS? Are you ready for this, 8% of the time. That sounds impressive until you find out that it only occured 4 times in the last 14 years. The Fav wins by exactly one, regardless of the line, right at 3.5% of the time compared to 2.4% during regular season.

All that said, I come home from fishing and the score is 27-21 in favor of the Rams late in the 3rd, a perfect set up for a 28-27 final

[sharpcat]

Anybody have a database on the successfulness of the "prevent D" in the NFL?

I would guess it is good for a last minute loss 80% of the time

[unusialsusp5]

the 11th commandment is doth shall not subtract on a 2 team teaser. or any teaser for that matter. if you subtract pts. your bankroll will follow in the same direction.

[skrtelfan]

I think it's kind of "solve by inspection" that the 1 will push more in the preseason since teams often play to avoid OT, but figuring out exactly how much more its worth is difficult due to the sample size issues mentioned.