Season Win math help

[byronbb]

I found a RSW prop for Houston Texans priced at o 8.5 +110. Pinny has it at o8 -196. Now I did some math and have arrived at a seemingly ridiculous edge for this wager making me question my process. Can anyone do a quick calc and tell me what they get??


hmmm I just edited my formula and now get a 9% edge which makes more sense.

[bztips]

I'm sure it's too late now; but fyi your edge was 39% (ignoring the half-point difference in the over line).

[Peregrine Stoop]

don't fall into the Binomial tarp when trying to evaluate what a half game is worth

[bztips]

don't fall into the Binomial tarp when trying to evaluate what a half game is worth

yeah, you're right.

[RickySteve]

I'm sure it's too late now; but fyi your edge was 39% (ignoring the half-point difference in the over line).

Awesome post.

[byronbb]

I was wondering what Pinny's limits will be on these RSW lines into september. Currently @ $700, will they open them up to bigger action?

[donjuan]

I'm sure it's too late now; but fyi your edge was 39% (ignoring the half-point difference in the over line).

Ignoring a half point difference at any time is hazardous to your bankroll but doing so on RSW totals is pretty much bankroll death.

[byronbb]

I placed o 8 -196 at about a breakeven of 8.6 essentially giving me +110 on a coinflip.



edit


to evaluate an over with excels binomdist is it 1-binomdist(w-1,16,p,1)???