Haneyh's Review of Conquering Risk

[Dark Horse]

I'd love a list of those!

Communism sounded good in theory, as they say.

Actually, the point (of books being neutral, as opposed to 'evil') is rather important. Let me explain. I've read the book, and in my opinion it gives away too much. We've seen that trend in the past in horse racing, and in the long run it hurts players. Why? Because we're not playing against the 'evil books' that Justin sees, but against other players (for the most part, that is). If they become sharper, there will be fewer and fewer betting opportunities. The book points out this obvious fact in a chapter on creating a WNBA model, which works fine for one seaon, and was already dead the very next season. This sounds familiar enough, but why speed up that process? There is one chapter that gives away loopholes. My guess is that the books, even those not too sharp, will have those plugged up in no time. To those hanging around in the think tank for a few years there is no revolutionary information, but I truly wish that pro gamblers would not write any more books like this. The book will help newer players to become sharp, but it will not help sharp players to become sharper. Like you said, communism sounds good in theory...

In short, good book. And therefore, ironically, not recommended.

[Indecent]

nm.

You should have left your original post up. I don't think you were out of line in either what you said or how you said it. Even though I will most likely personally benefit from some of the information in the book, I still think it's a reasonable criticism.

[Dark Horse]

You should have left your original post up. I don't think you were out of line in either what you said or how you said it. Even though I will most likely personally benefit from some of the information in the book, it's a reasonable criticism.

I rewrote the essence, posted above. I did struggle with the idea of being critical here. Obviously, it's not very kind when someone takes the trouble to write a book. The problem is simple. The day will come when it will no longer be enough to stay just ahead of the curve. In the future it will have to be a few curves, or an entire lap...

[statictheory]

Darkhorse.
I wouldnt worry about the information in this or any other book closing up loopholes. Of course this might be a ploy by you to help sell the book, but if its not then dont worry, very few will do what is neccesary.
Please dont take this wrong but as a proffesional horseplayer i kind of had to laugh at your comments.
Most of the information in Horseracing, poker, and trading is misdirection.
You wont believe this but I make a very good living from betting horses and I know nothing about horses, jockeys trainers speed or any handicapping. I do know the morning line and the board very well, but not like anything you could imagine or have seen written about. Im not writing this to brag, but to point out that most people have been misdirected to believe in certain stats and circumstances that are
not in reality with what they are trying to accomplish, (ie the daily racing form in racing is just one small example). look at what everyone is focusing on and try to move in the opposite direction. good luck

[Dark Horse]

Darkhorse.
I wouldnt worry about the information in this or any other book closing up loopholes. Of course this might be a ploy by you to help sell the book, but if its not then dont worry, very few will do what is neccesary.
Please dont take this wrong but as a proffesional horseplayer i kind of had to laugh at your comments.
Most of the information in Horseracing, poker, and trading is misdirection.
You wont believe this but I make a very good living from betting horses and I know nothing about horses, jockeys trainers speed or any handicapping. I do know the morning line and the board very well, but not like anything you could imagine or have seen written about. Im not writing this to brag, but to point out that most people have been misdirected to believe in certain stats and circumstances that are
not in reality with what they are trying to accomplish, (ie the daily racing form in racing is just one small example). look at what everyone is focusing on and try to move in the opposite direction. good luck

You play the tote board. Good for you that you can make it work. But you also said that you know nothing about horses. So how would you know how other horse players, who use different methods than yours, were affected by the 'publishing revolution' that started with Beyer? Horse players were not happy with Beyer when he published his speed numbers. It made it much harder for them, because suddenly the public was more informed. That is not in dispute at all.

Did you sign up to post this reply, by the way? This being your first post.

[Optional]

Actually, the point (of books being neutral, as opposed to 'evil') is rather important. Let me explain. I've read the book, and in my opinion it gives away too much. We've seen that trend in the past in horse racing, and in the long run it hurts players. Why? Because we're not playing against the 'evil books' that Justin sees, but against other players (for the most part, that is). If they become sharper, there will be fewer and fewer betting opportunities. The book points out this obvious fact in a chapter on creating a WNBA model, which works fine for one seaon, and was already dead the very next season. This sounds familiar enough, but why speed up that process? There is one chapter that gives away loopholes. My guess is that the books, even those not too sharp, will have those plugged up in no time. To those hanging around in the think tank for a few years there is no revolutionary information, but I truly wish that pro gamblers would not write any more books like this. The book will help newer players to become sharp, but it will not help sharp players to become sharper. Like you said, communism sounds good in theory...

In short, good book. And therefore, ironically, not recommended.

Quite the catch22, from a sharp's perspective.

And I'm just playing devils advocate here, but for the truly sharp operator, surely more liquidity and a more mathematically predictable market opens up different/more opportunities?

Or is the reverse possibly true? That less sophisticated markets, probably with lower liquidity, are more ripe for exploitation.

[luegofuego]

also left me with little doubt that the least knowledgeable of all investors, on average of course, are to be found on Wall Street. (anybody who would rather bet other people's money than his own should never be trusted; the golden rule that drives true investors and gamblers to greater heights is that you pay for your own mistakes

hilariously ironic that you would say this just a couple of posts after justin7 revealed how few of his students understood basic percentages...

hint: would you rather have 10% commission on a $20mm account or 100% commission on your own $200k account?

[Dark Horse]

hilariously ironic that you would say this just a couple of posts after justin7 revealed how few of his students understood basic percentages...

hint: would you rather have 10% commission on a $20mm account or 100% commission on your own $200k account?

Are you under the impression that a broker only makes money if he shows a profit for his clients?

On a sidenote (to this topic), in 2008 I demonstrated an 'unconventional' trading method during a five month experiment to a Morgan Stanley broker, who had agreed to a role as verification depository. My trades typically showed 10 to 20% profits in the first week. At the end up the experiment I showed a 200+ % profit. The broker had been encouraging at first, but became increasingly quiet as the profits shot up (in that world a 10-20 % annual profit is practically godlike). In the end all he had to say was that I had made too many trades ... For real. Zero interest in an extremely profitable approach. He also told me that any recommendation on his behalf would risk his job. I'm sorry, but I have a hard time respecting such cowards. Let them trade their own money, and see how well they do. Accountability to oneself first. A gambler makes a mistake, he pays for it. A broker makes a similar mistake, but doesn't pay for it. Who do you think is going to have a steeper learning curve? Winning gamblers are infinitely more trustworthy than WS brokers. To me personally they represent opposite sides of the spectrum.

Anyway, enough about that. Back to Justin's book, which is very good.

[luegofuego]

you weren't talking about brokers, and judging by the edited part it doesn't seem like you actually know the difference between a broker and an investor.

as for the edited part, 10-20% annual LONG TERM is considered god like. do you really think the incredibly simple concept of "variance" has eluded wall street? the arrogance is just loltastically astounding. if some wall street investor came in here and boasted about his 10-20% ROI on his last fifty NFL games, we'd all laugh in his face. i suggest we practice some consistancy and do the same to you.

it's also pretty astounding that you seem to believe people ******* up billion dollar accounts has zero accountability for their actions. ofc the most astounding thing of all is the implication that it actually takes more talent to beat WNBA or NFL spreads or whatever-the-**** than it takes beating unfathomably liquid and efficient markets like forex where your DIRECT COMPETITION consist of international banks and finance moguls.

[statictheory]

You play the tote board. Good for you that you can make it work. But you also said that you know nothing about horses. So how would you know how other horse players, who use different methods than yours, were affected by the 'publishing revolution' that started with Beyer? Horse players were not happy with Beyer when he published his speed numbers. It made it much harder for them, because suddenly the public was more informed. That is not in dispute at all.

Did you sign up to post this reply, by the way? This being your first post. __________________
DiGiTAL$HADE


im not stupid, i didnt learn what i know overnight. all those things you mentioned are mis direction. im sorry, im not trying to dangle a carrot but in that venue your in with the crowd.
yes i actually did sign up to post this response knowing that more than you would read it.
I dont really want to debate you here but think about this: Speed is meaningless
if a horse (jockey/stable etc) isnt trying to win the race, and trying to say that sharp handicappers were using speed to a high degree of success before Beyer is flat out bullshit. The best handicappers have had the same winning stats forever. nothing dried up, its worth and other handicapping factors worth is much smaller than you think and actually close to worthless.When you win a horse race handicapping, you really dont know for sure what was the over riding factor, because those factors are meaningless. . you have been misdirected away from the reality or that game. enough said, and bye the way i wasnt trying to put you down, rather wake your ass up. good luck

[Dark Horse]

It's one opinion. There are plenty of players who, speaking from their own experience, have shared the opposite. They had a much easier time making money in the era before Beyer. Why would that be misdirection?

"Speed is meaningless if a horse (jockey/stable) isn't trying to win the race."

Sure. That's an interesting point. If somebody wrote a good book about that, I'd like to read it. That would be a missing element for me. I use speed numbers as initial filter (not Beyers), form of the day, and an independent form cycle (measured against pp's), but even though that produced rather good results, sometimes trainers/owners aren't interested. Thanks for the effort at waking me up, but I doubt horses are my thing. The biggest obstacle for me is time. It can take me two hours to cap a single race, with no guarantee at a play, which just doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.

[statictheory]

It's one opinion. There are plenty of players who, speaking from their own experience, have shared the opposite. They had a much easier time making money in the era before Beyer. Why would that be misdirection?

"Speed is meaningless if a horse (jockey/stable) isn't trying to win the race."

Sure. That's an interesting point. If somebody wrote a good book about that, I'd like to read it. That would be a missing element for me. I use speed numbers as initial filter (not Beyers), form of the day, and an independent form cycle (measured against pp's), but even though that produced rather good results, sometimes trainers/owners aren't interested. Thanks for the effort at waking me up, but I doubt horses are my thing. The biggest obstacle for me is time. It can take me two hours to cap a single race, with no guarantee at a play, which just doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.

Good, dont waste your time because you cant win by handicapping.

[Dark Horse]

lol

[brumbies]

Good, dont waste your time because you cant win by handicapping.

How to win then? Flip a coin?

[Peep]

How to win then? Flip a coin?

"For only $39.95 you too can learn to read between the lines and win! All you need to know to WIN is to deciper the deeper meaning of the tout board and the moves that it makes based on the Morning Line.

Act now, as this offer is limited to the first 100 subscribers! IF YOU DO NOT WIN AT LEAST 5K YOUR FIRST MONTH OF USING OUR SYSTEM WE REFUND YOUR $39.95, no questions asked!"

[statictheory]

"For only $39.95 you too can learn to read between the lines and win! All you need to know to WIN is to deciper the deeper meaning of the tout board and the moves that it makes based on the Morning Line.

Act now, as this offer is limited to the first 100 subscribers! IF YOU DO NOT WIN AT LEAST 5K YOUR FIRST MONTH OF USING OUR SYSTEM WE REFUND YOUR $39.95, no questions asked!"

hah, id be charging alot more than that. i spent 10 years getting where i am, my family will benefit but no others.

Its always in the money, and i suspect the same is true with sports betting. i just look at these types of boards once in a while, but i know anything published will only take you so far.

[Maverick22]

Why do you guys just have a "Who can pick the most winners" contest.

Upload your picks in a pass word protected file, before the game. After the game[day] reveal the password. And we will all look at picks from the day before and keep tallies.

Otherwise you kiddies will pull this "me and my way are better than yours" shit all day. Like a bunch of youngsters on the playground. Prove it. Else shut the hell up...

I'll even enter with you guys [if u want]...The winner of the contest between Horse and StaticTheory get 50 pts from me. Just b/c you are polluting the thread with this bs, and i'd rather hear relevant discussion of the book.... not a d|ck measuring contest.

You guys agree to settle this how most adults do?

Edit: if you are worried about someone cracking ur password...use some strong two-way encyrption that takes years to crack. So there are no excuses And instead of a text(word based) password, you just give out the encryption key/hash...{each day would be different because the text contents are different.}

So there. Lets have at it boys!!

[Dark Horse]

Mav, put up 20K of your money and we'll have a go at it. That enough for you, statictheory? I don't know where the guy got the idea that this is a p*ssing contest, but if he puts up the money, why the hell not.

Otherwise, I'm out of this thread. I don't want to take part in, pointlessly, sidetracking it from the true topic. (Mav, I post occasional free picks at another site, and you're welcome to them. Just don't ask for them here.)

[Maverick22]

Whoa Whoa Whoa. Maybe I did not speak clearly. Or my words were taken wrong.

I dont want picks. i'm the last person looking for picks...

Was simply offering up my idea for a "Let's Settle This" option.

And my reply was to somewhat stop the side tracking. I'm not personally attacking anyone. I was just noting the back and forth between you and Mr. 4 post Handicapping Master ( Or so he said). I have little doubt you would beat him.

Simply proposing a contest of picks (and doing so in a manner that doesnt result in the public being aware of the pick before the game is complete).

If my words were taken any other way. Then excuse me

[statictheory]

first off the way i play i cant make advanced picks, but... i know that the way i said what i said sounded like a brag, but if you knew what i know regarding racing then youd understand. And me saying that sounds even worse. Im sorry to have come off this way. My point isnt that i can beat the races rather that in the
venues i mentioned the public has been conditioned to look at things that dont have true value. I cant say it any other way...... so im sorry for sounding cocky, i just have a strong opinion regarding racing and i wish i could say more. good luck with the book and i hope to read about all the money being made as a result.

[Peep]

first off the way i play i cant make advanced picks, but... i know that the way i said what i said sounded like a brag, but if you knew what i know regarding racing then youd understand. And me saying that sounds even worse. Im sorry to have come off this way. My point isnt that i can beat the races rather that in the
venues i mentioned the public has been conditioned to look at things that dont have true value. I cant say it any other way...... so im sorry for sounding cocky, i just have a strong opinion regarding racing and i wish i could say more. good luck with the book and i hope to read about all the money being made as a result.

I'll save you having to read his post Dark Horse.

He say..... NO (to putting up any money for any kind of challenge).

[pedro803]

just an FYI (that ya'll probably already know) there is a site called wagertracker

http://www.wagertracker.com/

that could also be used as an easy alternative for such a D|ck measuring contest as has been described here by Maverick22. Of course I realize there are some here who could hack a site like that, but they search that sort of thing out, as they award prize money to the player who finishes an entire season with the most winnings

[Maverick22]

Justin, As the author do you know when the shipment of your book hits amazon.com? For quite some time, the book is listed as out of stock.

Should I wait for the inventory of Amazon to go up, or try to save up up points and buy through the SBR Store?

[Justin7]

Justin, As the author do you know when the shipment of your book hits amazon.com? For quite some time, the book is listed as out of stock.

Should I wait for the inventory of Amazon to go up, or try to save up up points and buy through the SBR Store?

They get books 1-2 times per week. If you pre-order when it shows "out of stock", it will usually be shipped within a week.

[brettd]

I just managed to get it shipped from Amazon today. Even though I had a pre-order on it 7 weeks ago, I randomly checked the Amazon page for it today. They happened to have five available in stock. So I cancelled the pre-order and just ordered it right then and there. You might still be able to get one right now.

I queried Amazon about why this occurred, and they said something about some technical difficulties, blah, blah, blah. So if you any of you guys have the book on pre-order, periodically check the Amazon page anyway.

[Dark Horse]

first off the way i play i cant make advanced picks, but... i know that the way i said what i said sounded like a brag, but if you knew what i know regarding racing then youd understand. And me saying that sounds even worse. Im sorry to have come off this way. My point isnt that i can beat the races rather that in the
venues i mentioned the public has been conditioned to look at things that dont have true value. I cant say it any other way...... so im sorry for sounding cocky, i just have a strong opinion regarding racing and i wish i could say more. good luck with the book and i hope to read about all the money being made as a result.

From the way the money moves an expert can tell a lot. UltimateSelector is another example of a poster who has been at the same game for years, using his own software.

But ... you did make my argument for me by saying that races can't be capped using speed figures etc. Talk to a guy like Charles Carroll, and see how things changed for him after Beyer came out with his speed figures.

Ultimately, it is not a good idea, in my opinion, to educate the public with anything beyond general concepts. Unless you're so far ahead of the game that it no longer matters. It's similar to running in a race and slowing down so others can catch up. It only makes sense if you've lapped the field.

[statictheory]

From the way the money moves an expert can tell a lot. UltimateSelector is another example of a poster who has been at the same game for years, using his own software.

But ... you did make my argument for me by saying that races can't be capped using speed figures etc. Talk to a guy like Charles Carroll, and see how things changed for him after Beyer came out with his speed figures.

Ultimately, it is not a good idea, in my opinion, to educate the public with anything beyond general concepts. Unless you're so far ahead of the game that it no longer matters. It's similar to running in a race and slowing down so others can catch up. It only makes sense if you've lapped the field.

What i should have said more clearly is that it is very difficult for a handicapper to find real value. Of course there are some guys that are making a profit, but I regularly have winners in the 6-1 to 20-1 or some higher, and its not a matter of
thinking they might have a good chance to win, its knowing, ... ok. there are patterns and thats as far as I go, and again whats in the form is really of little value if you want to really make money. When prices come in they almost never are forseeable using the information there, so it looks virtually impossible to a handicapper that someone other than a stooge or someone with inside knowledge could ever have a logical reason to bet it, let alone be very confident that it will win. but theres alot more going on in the game. that's it good luck

[Dark Horse]

... ok. there are patterns and thats as far as I go, ...

There are patterns?

I thought you were responding to me initially because you didn't see the sharing of valuable information as a problem at all.

I don't mean to be argumentative, but it appears to me that you're actually agreeing with my point of view.

[RockyV]

.

I ordered Thursday before last, it arrived like Wednesday of this week. Not getting as much out of it as I would if I knew more stuff and read more books, but overall it is a nice book to have. One big thing I've gained from this book is finally breaking through my psychological barrier and biases against gambling.
If someone tells you that sports betting can be the same as investing in stocks, you might kind of agree. But it is an entirely different thing to actually believe it. There are some pretty strong cultural taboos associated with gambling that make that insight ("hey, this can be an investment if I do X, Y, and Z, not just me pissing away my money") hard to truly believe in.

One thing I sort of wish the book had was a sort for the examples they did was a dataset to work with, say in Excel on a website somewhere. That way you could download it and follow along their examples...there is a lot to be gained from actually working with real data. But again, overall a pretty good book, imo.

I plan on reading the Stanford Wong and King Yao books next, hopefully those are as useful.

[JustinBieber]

Any way I can get hold of this book in england?

[Flying Dutchman]

The difference in the Stock market and Sports market is: your investment in the stock market will grow over time with the economy if invested in something akin to a market index. If you day-trade in stocks, you'll get your butt handed to you with the commissions. Unless you are an owner of a sports team (actually you'd like to own a bit of stock in many teams) there is no such way to invest in the sports teams, so you are reduced to essentially day-trading in the sports betting market.

[RockyV]

Yeah, sports betting seems kind of like day trading...you'll get owned unless you truly know what you are doing. But if you truly know what you are doing, you can make tons of money it seems:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading

I'd imagine the competition levels are far, far higher there, since there are several orders of magnitude more money at stage, and the business I suspect is filled with lots of really bright people.

But there are lots of parallels, I think.

[Justin7]

Any way I can get hold of this book in england?

Yes. google High Stakes bookstore. It is located in London, England.

[Pokerjoe]

Rocky, I honestly don't think you'll get anything out of Yao or Wong's books. Better to wade through threads on good forums. Honestly, I'd find posters you think are smart, click on their names, and read through their posts to find good threads. It can be time consuming because there's a lot of noise, but some nuggets. Good luck.

[CatPulp]

I'm in, Justin7. I just ordered my own copy and look forward to reading your book.