The Lakers opened at -6.5 and have since moved to 7. Obviously books have already accounted for and/or don't have to worry about public favorites given how huge each market is. So the .5 point move was caused by sharp accounts, correct? Or is there really no edge here? Is the line too efficient to the point that .5 difference would not be enough to overcome the juice?
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Not quite sure what you're asking - did you bet -6.5 and are trying to determine your current edge to the market? Are you thinking about betting the 7 now?
The market on the spread for this game has "matured", so one can assume (as of now) that the spread of 7 is a more accurate spread for this game than 6.5. That doesn't necessarily mean you should bet on the 7 because the "sharps" are on the Laker's side.
Even if you bet 6.5, it depends on what you paid. Currently, I would say anything over -108.6 (based on both teams being at -104 on pinnacle) would be a negative edge bet (again if you're evaluating your edge based on the current market price)
Does that answer your question?Comment -
No I didn't bet at all and I'm not considering betting it now. I'm just asking "since the line is so accurate, is there even an edge for the so-called sharps who bet it at -6.5?"Comment -
Not taking vigorish into consideration the player who got down at -6.5 has about a 4% edge over the player who got down at -7.Comment -
SBR Tools has some very useful calculators many courtesy of Ganchrow. With some time and research of your own you could also develop your own databases to derive these numbers from.Comment -
books got killed. all laker series bets were hedged by players taking the 6.5-7.0. plus all celtic players took the points.Comment
