What is long term?

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  • the shadow
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-02-09
    • 120

    #1
    What is long term?
    Accordiing to kelly, you will double your bankroll every 3590 plays if you have a 2% advantage. (Is this true?)

    So if you play 1000 games a year you get a paycheck every 3 1/2 years (maybe)

    I guess this is a standard deviation question.

    How many games does it take with a 2% advantage before you know you got'em by the balls? If ever!!
  • Peep
    SBR MVP
    • 06-23-08
    • 2295

    #2
    Originally posted by the shadow
    Accordiing to kelly, you will double your bankroll every 3590 plays if you have a 2% advantage. (Is this true?)

    So if you play 1000 games a year you get a paycheck every 3 1/2 years (maybe)

    I guess this is a standard deviation question.

    How many games does it take with a 2% advantage before you know you got'em by the balls? If ever!!
    Just thinking about it, I would say it is False.

    Even if you just flat bet, with a 2% advantage, you would get back more or less $102 dollars for every hundred bets, showing an average profit of more or less $2. So your starting bankroll should double in fifty bets, not in "3590 bets." Where did you get that number from?
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    • rm18
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 09-20-05
      • 22291

      #3
      Originally posted by Peep
      Just thinking about it, I would say it is False.

      Even if you just flat bet, with a 2% advantage, you would get back more or less $102 dollars for every hundred bets, showing an average profit of more or less $2. So your starting bankroll should double in fifty bets, not in "3590 bets." Where did you get that number from?
      no it will take 50 bets to make a unit, but if that is only like 1-2% of your bankroll it will take thousands of bets to double
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        Betting 2% edges vs. -110 lines, it would take 1576 bets to double up.
        Comment
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