Anyone check my math on Argentina please?

[statnerds]

i like em to win WC.

5Dimes has them -884 to advance and -210 to win Group.

i give S Korea no chance.

took 2 double exact plays on

Argentina & Greece +320 1 Unit
Argentina & Nigeria +330 .969696969696969697 Units

what did i just reduce the -210 to? really no prize given out, just playing with numbers is all.

[Hybris]

Not sure what you ask for but i guess its the dutching price? +112 do i get..2.12 in decimal.

With ~51% on +320 and ~49% on +330

[blackf1re]

That's correct.

Problem is South Korea has a much better chance than Greece and especially Nigeria imho.

[djiddish98]

Something seems off with those Exacts based on where the other lines stand. I'm not ruling out a math error.

A)The no vig % on Argentina winning at -210 is ~66.6%
B)The no vig % on Greece advancing at 157 is ~38.45% (I haven't done this calc before with the possibility of having 2 results hit, so let me know if this math is off)

C) the no vig % of Greece winning ~10.14%

Probability of Argentina winning (A) * probability of Greece being second (B*(1-C)) = probability of exact hitting. This converts into a line of 430.35 334.59

[djiddish98]

As a follow up, I think the Argentina 1st, Nigeria 2nd line has some better value. I'm getting a fair line of 303.987 (which is based on 5Dimes other lines, granted).