Help with winning margins in basball

[pilotdog]

I have been able to find the percentage of baseball games ending in 1 run . I was wondering if anyone had a breakdown that went further.

[TomG]

Read http://www.amazon.com/Betting-Baseba...3174343&sr=1-1. Your answer is in there.

[Peeig]

Reignjurz -2.5 ftw!

[Pancho sanza]

I have been able to find the percentage of baseball games ending in 1 run . I was wondering if anyone had a breakdown that went further.

Last 5 years


2009 2430 656 27.0%

2008 2428 681 28.0%

2007 2431 679 27.9%

2006 2429 675 27.8%

2005 2431 719 29.6%

[ScreaminPain]

Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

League Wide: 72.5%
+200 or more: 70.2%
+190s: 77.0%
+180s: 76.4%
+170s: 67.4%
+160s: 75.3%
+150s: 72.9%
+140s: 70.9%
+130s: 73.5%
+120s: 68.0%
+110s: 72.4%
+100s: 72.9%
-100s: 68.9%
-110s: 70.6%
-120s: 72.4%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.3%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%
-190s: 77.5%
-200s: 76.2%
Favorites that are -120 or better beat the runline at a higher percentage than the league average (73.6%). In fact, this indicates that betting the runline on these teams will generally be better than betting the money line. Turn these favorites into a dog.

Nevertheless, a more striking point worth noting is the Home-Away Dynamics of the Run Line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites better than -120: 80.1%

[pilotdog]

Does anyone know what percent of games end in exactly 2 runs? I am trying to figure out something using the -2.5 line.

[IrishTim]

Does anyone know what percent of games end in exactly 2 runs? I am trying to figure out something using the -2.5 line.

Quick look at data from 2003-2009, looks like 18.22% of games end with a 2 run difference. The distribution obviously changes with regard to home/away and favorite/dog.

[Thomas_Garber]

Does anyone know what percent of games end in exactly 2 runs? I am trying to figure out something using the -2.5 line.

Playing the -2.5 runline will not be profitable in the long run. I follow the picks from bettingresource.com and they are the best baseball cappers that I know. They had many articles up on their site at one point and one of them was -2.5/+2.5 run line in baseball. According to the article if you simply play these spreads based on past %, you will lose a lot of money in the long run because the odds are not "fair". Bookmaker vig on the odds of the spreads are very high and according to the article that I read it can go anywhere from 25 to 50 cents...sometimes even worse. Even if you are a solid capper it is hard to come on top with such vigs. According to bettingresource best way to profit in baseball is to play value dog lines....most of the value is on games with odds of +125 to +190....that doesn't mean play them blindly. You have to cap the games and play the value games.