Arb Situation

[FreeFall]

I had a side cancelled on me and am unsure of what to do.

I have the sharks to win the series for 574 / -320 / 179.38
and COL for 170.00 / COL Series +344 / 584.80
my COL series bet was cancelled due to it being a "bad" line.

What do I do? Run out my horrible sharks bet or bet 180 on COL to hedge some off?

Thanks for your help,

FreeFall

[sharpcat]

Wait and see if the avalanche win tonight and if they do you will likely be able to hedge your way out of the sharks play, but I would wait till the avalanche win one more game because you may not need to hedge your bet

[FreeFall]

Wait and see if the avalanche win tonight and if they do you will likely be able to hedge your way out of the sharks play, but I would wait till the avalanche win one more game because you may not need to hedge your bet

how do you figure? if the sharks win tonight they go back up to ~-320, that is OKAY b/c it'll be back to where I bought it.

If the AVA win tonight it will goto ~-300 for the avalanche which is only worse for me

[sharpcat]

If the avalanche lose tonight and possibly again you will most likely get your chance to buy out of your sharks bet with a series bet on the avalanche.

If the sharks lose tonight than they will most likely be heavy favorites to win the next game at home and you will have a much better line to hedge the avalanche side on against the moneyline.

The series is only 2-1 in a 7 game series I am not understanding why you are panicking already, the sharks are still favorites to win the series. if you want to throw money down the drain feel free to hedge out of your bet now with the avalanche +120 against your -320 sharks bet and take a loss but I would recommend waiting in order to get a better line to hedge your bet against.

[FreeFall]

Solid advice and I totally forgot about sides too! Thats why I came and asked and I appreciate the input.

Thanks Sharpcat

[sharpcat]

No problem

nice catch though I read your thread and got burnt on this one also I got the sharks -300 at bookmaker should have known that line was off a bit too much.

As said I am going to stick it out for now and wait for a better situation to hedge whether on the moneyline later or maybe with a sharks win or 2 get a better line on the avalanche to win the series. Either way we are better off waiting till we get a better hand to play

[skrtelfan]

I had a side cancelled on me and am unsure of what to do.

I have the sharks to win the series for 574 / -320 / 179.38
and COL for 170.00 / COL Series +344 / 584.80
my COL series bet was cancelled due to it being a "bad" line.

What do I do? Run out my horrible sharks bet or bet 180 on COL to hedge some off?

Thanks for your help,

FreeFall

When did you bet COL? If you bet those simultaneously, +344 certainly isn't a "bad line."

[sharpcat]

avalanche +344 is definately a bad line when other books were offering the sharks -320/-300. The line was listed under reduced lines so all though odd it seemed possible.

[FreeFall]

avalanche +344 is definately a bad line when other books were offering the sharks -320/-300. The line was listed under reduced lines so all though odd it seemed possible.

I'm frustrated how it's the players fault for their software/person for listing bad odds. That seems like a load of to me. We should all open up books and say the lines that win were bad and just take all the money.

[durito]

avalanche +344 is definately a bad line when other books were offering the sharks -320/-300. The line was listed under reduced lines so all though odd it seemed possible.

I would not call that a bad line... Was it a stale line? Those can never be called bad lines

[sharpcat]

No it was a bad line

they were offering the sharks -320 in their non reduced juice section, so one could have bet both sides strictly with 5d

[xyz]

In this case, I would have just bet the bad line, and let it ride. Don't arb lines that are likely to be canceled.

[donjuan]

Answering the initial question, Ganchrow has a post on optimal hedging strategy somewhere. Lost all my bookmarks during a recent computer crash but you should be able to find it pretty easily. Basically the correct amount to hedge depends on your bankroll, your (or the market's) current fair value and the odds you are able to get on the hedge.

[donjuan]

No it was a bad line

they were offering the sharks -320 in their non reduced juice section, so one could have bet both sides strictly with 5d

Probably because it was stale, not because it was a bad line.

[durito]

No it was a bad line

they were offering the sharks -320 in their non reduced juice section, so one could have bet both sides strictly with 5d

That doesnt make it bad. Was it ever the correct #? Bookmaker stupidity isnt an excuse to cancel a wager. I have seen this before at 5 pennies.

[FreeFall]

That doesnt make it bad. Was it ever the correct #? Bookmaker stupidity isnt an excuse to cancel a wager. I have seen this before at 5 pennies.

Is there really anything I can do about it without losing my account at 5dimes?

[Pancho sanza]

I had a side cancelled on me and am unsure of what to do.

I have the sharks to win the series for 574 / -320 / 179.38
and COL for 170.00 / COL Series +344 / 584.80
my COL series bet was cancelled due to it being a "bad" line.

What do I do? Run out my horrible sharks bet or bet 180 on COL to hedge some off?

Thanks for your help,

FreeFall

The solution to any problem regarding how much you should hedge would be to do what maxes the value of the log of your ending bankroll.

You'll need the following inputs to solve this problem:

Current series line
Probability of each unique outcome (as dictated by current series price)
Current bankroll

Since there are only 2 possible unique outcomes here it should be easy to calculate.

Take P*LOG(end bankroll) for each outcome, you want to sum these then maximize them, you'll need to have excel solver installed.

If you have trouble with the calculation I can help.

[sharpcat]

Probably because it was stale, not because it was a bad line.

Lines usually don't remain stale for over 3 hours, nor do books frequently offer 24 cent scalps between their (NHL) betting section and their (NHL Reduced) betting section simultaneously.

LOL, I am not sure why you guys are arguing this with me I know what the difference between a "stale line" and a "bad line" is, and you guys did not even see the listings at any of the books

[skrtelfan]

I've seen Pinnacle simultaneously deal a college basketball team -1 -108 and ML -107, because the software deals with each betting market separately. The difference between +344 and -320 is only about 1.3%--no way is a difference that tiny a "bad line."

[sharpcat]

"To each his own"

Since there is no true definition of a "bad line" the true definition is subject to various opinions.

From a players perspective I do not feel it was that bad of a line and do not think the wager should have been canceled.

From a bookmakers perspective it was a bad line!!! anytime a book is offering 2 identical wagers where the "+" side of one wager is a higher number than the "-" side of the other wager it is a bad line. The idea of bookmaking is to make a profit by charging a commission to the player in return for the service they offer which by no means is accomplished by handing out free money.

So unless somebody has a link to a true definition of the term "bad line" we are basically arguing about how to pronounce "tomato".

A "stale line" would have been the result of a slow moving book, but this was not the case here because the books (NHL) line was correct it was an error in their (Reduced NHL) betting option. The book made an error when they hung this line and therefore should have accepted the error and honored those bets already placed, but this is another argument which is not worth losing my account privileges over so we will leave it at that. Whenever you attempt to scalp a bet you always need to be prepared for the possibility of one of your wagers being cancelled.

[FreeFall]

We keep it riding through this game too, right sharpcat?

[sharpcat]

We keep it riding through this game too, right sharpcat?

2-2 series sharks at home were in no danger here, if sharks win we will likely get an avalanche line good enough to hedge without taking any loss. If avalanche win we will likely have to cross our fingers in game six because we will not have a good line to hedge with but if we get to game 7 we will have several options.

Its really your option and depends how you feel, you could hedge now and take a $72 dollar loss which I personally do not care to hedge for a loss when I have so many other options remaining but I do understand that you have a lot riding on the sharks.

[FreeFall]

2-2 series sharks at home were in no danger here, if sharks win we will likely get an avalanche line good enough to hedge without taking any loss. If avalanche win we will likely have to cross our fingers in game six because we will not have a good line to hedge with but if we get to game 7 we will have several options.

Its really your option and depends how you feel, you could hedge now and take a $72 dollar loss which I personally do not care to hedge for a loss when I have so many other options remaining but I do understand that you have a lot riding on the sharks.

Nope I'm going to stick this one out! Let see what happens tonight. GO SHARKS!

[sharpcat]

Nope I'm going to stick this one out! Let see what happens tonight. GO SHARKS!

If sharks win tonight I think we will see our original Avalanche line again

[sharpcat]

Series price is +700 avalanche at matchbook

+525 at the greek