Home advantage

[rfr3sh]

So in the NBA the spread is usually adjusted ~3 pts for the home team .. atleast thats what i'm lead to beleive, is there a rule like this for every sport, specifically soccer?

[Justin7]

Every sport has some sort of home field advantage, but it differs by sport and league.

In NFL, HFA is typically worth 2 to 2.5 points (and more after week 15 and post-season). In NCAAF, it is about 3.5 points.

You'll see a similar thing in basketball - the home field is worth more in college than sports.

You have to be careful in soccer - the HFA changes drastically based on the league. In J-League, it's worth maybe 0.2 goals; in French it's about 0.75 goals.

[rfr3sh]

thanks for the information, I feel like in the EPL it would be around the same as the french league? maybe even more

edit:

HFA = (Home Goals For – Home Goals Against)/Home Games Played

I found this formula online..how accurate is that would you think

[Dunder]

Home advantage in the EPL is 0.6 - 0.7 goals, however there is a big variance between the bigger teams and the smaller ones as a rule.

The simple goal difference divided by games played is the baseline on which most handicapping/modeling is done, yes.

[rfr3sh]

Ok so for instance I run my model and I get A result of 1-1 for Burnley - Stoke Tomorrow
So The line I would make would be PK, however adding home advantage with my calculation would make burnley favourites by -0.3
therefor I would play Burnley PK because I feel I have a slight advantage?

[LucenaPosition]

As a minor nit, sports whose point differentials are not normal distributions (like the NFL) are not good candidates for just having a flat home field advantage adjustment.

In order to answer your Burnley question, you'll basically need to estimate how much you think a goal is worth in the EPL. Lets say hypothetically that a half point home team favorite will produce a distribution like:

Away Wins - 25%
Draws - 25%
Home Wins - 50%.

Lets also assume that a 0 point home team favorite will produce a distribution like:

Away Wins - 37.5%
Draws - 25%
Home Wins - 37.5%.

In this scenario your .3 goal differential will yield a distribution close to Away Wins - 30%, Draw - 25%, Home Wins - 45%.

[rfr3sh]

alright thanks for the information, I was thinking of something link that today actually
thanks for the post

[Cookie Monster]

Wow, a fellow Chess player. And he knows endgame technique (The Lucena position is the most important position in rook endgames... unless you are like me, often in the weaker side; I prefer the Philidor position LOL).

[gLonghorn]

I'd be curious if anyone has done some more detailed analysis on HFA and determined whether the value is impacted by whether the favorite is at home or the dog is at home.

Intuitively, college football or basketball home dogs might be worth the most. Expecially if it is a 5-10 point line. It seems like those are easiest to overcome and win outright.

On the flip side, a home favorite that is giving 10+ points is absolutely expected to win and may not reap the same benefit from home crowd, there might even be some pressure to win.

just curious. i'd think that looking at a regression plot for home fav's and home dogs might be interesting...

[Dark Horse]

How much is home ice worth in the NHL?

[skrtelfan]

I always find it better to express things in terms of percentages rather than points. Post-lockout/post rule changes, the NHL home team has won about 56% of the time.

[Dark Horse]

Unoh... I feel a research attack coming.

The NHL moneyline seems relatively unsophisticated, as in all over the place.

Just an example: 6-9; 15-5; 4-10; 13-4. Those are the W/L records for home faves in spread range -140 to -149 for this past October, November, December, and January respectively.

You would think that the moneyline could factor in to determine a HFA expressed in goals, but with those type of fluctuations that may be hard. It does add up to a 38-28 record, however (57.5%).

[Dark Horse]

nm.

[Peregrine Stoop]

As others have mentioned, the value of home field or home court can vary dramatically within sports as well
for example, a home favorite of 22 in college bball does not gain much home court advantage
However, a home team that is a 3 point dog on a neutral court will typically have a more than 3 point HCA.
Home court/field plays its biggest role when the home team is considered even or slightly worse than the road team on a neutral court.

The key in all of this is to think about why home court/field gives an advantage at all.

[CHUBNUT]

Premiership HFA not only varies from year to year but also individual teams depending on their success. There's many ways of doing it which are all subjective but below is the historical figures based on league position as a guide(HFA included)

As the price of the draw depends on other indirect input its best using Pinnys no vig price as a guide. Simply compare the two figures( which represent goal supremacy) and multiply by the draw percentage to get the M/L

HOME
1 1.61
2 1.36
3 1.22
4 1.14
5 0.75
6 0.61
7 0.49
8 0.48
9 0.37
10 0.33
11 0.27
12 0.21
13 0.21
14 0
15 0
16 0
17 -0.08
18 -0.09
19 -0.13
20 -0.79

AWAY
1 1.00
2 0.88
3 0.53
4 0.21
5 0.04
6 0.03
7 -0.34
8 -0.36
9 -0.45
10 -0.52
11 -0.53
12 -0.66
13 -0.68
14 -0.72
15 -0.76
16 -0.81
17 -0.81
18 -0.94
19 -1.2
20 -1.25

EXAMPLE:PORTSMOUTH V HULL this Saturday HOME TEAM 20th position = -0.79 AWAY TEAM 19th position = -1.2
1.2 -0.79 = 0.41 X 28.50(draw %) = 11.68 +50% = M/L PORTSMOUTH 61.68.

To get the 3 way prices: 100 -The Draw % (28.50) = 71.50 X The M/L (61.68) =
PORTSMOUTH 44.1%
DRAW 28.50%
HULL 27.40%

While this is a guide it does work out well as Teams in certain positions in the league tend to play to a pattern of nessessity. Compared to an overall season goal supremacy figure and a recent form figure one can achieve a reasonable view of the game. From that you can see how injuries, weather or any other factors are effecting the Bookmakers prices.


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[rfr3sh]

the spread and totals cant be derived from these numbers though?

[CHUBNUT]

the spread and totals cant be derived from these numbers though?

Portsmouth 44.1% = +126
Draw 28.50 = +250
Hull 27.40 = + 264

Asian H'cap Portsmouth -0.5 = +126 Hull +0.5 = Draw & Hull Price combined

Totals are got by adding the goal averages (for & against) of the home team at home with the road teams road goal averages (for & against) 2.95

Divide by 2 and add the historical game total for the season ( 2.78) divide by 2
= 2.86
whatever this number is under or over 3.00 is the price for U/O 2.5, in this case its
UNDER 2.5 = -114