if BE point on SU plays is 52.4% or whatever it is, the same would be true on a 13 pt teaser 5 tmr at -110 that i mentioned here:
okay, so i took the numbers from LY just to see what a huge advantage teasing down Totals would be. for all games LY we get the amazing result of:
121-122-13 O/U
and if we teased every total down, it would be:
225-31 O/U for 88% winners. of course we would need 5 tms, and only two could be totals.
so how do i start from the end?
let's say i want a 5 tm tsr combo that traditionally hits at a 53% pace. how do i calculate the needed percentage?
i mean i can figure that a blind 5 tmr based on 88% would return an expected win rate of 52.77%. so how do i raise that number over 53% and work backward to the required percentage?
want starting percentage is required to flip a 5 tm tsr at -110 to +EV?
okay, so i took the numbers from LY just to see what a huge advantage teasing down Totals would be. for all games LY we get the amazing result of:
121-122-13 O/U
and if we teased every total down, it would be:
225-31 O/U for 88% winners. of course we would need 5 tms, and only two could be totals.
so how do i start from the end?
let's say i want a 5 tm tsr combo that traditionally hits at a 53% pace. how do i calculate the needed percentage?
i mean i can figure that a blind 5 tmr based on 88% would return an expected win rate of 52.77%. so how do i raise that number over 53% and work backward to the required percentage?
want starting percentage is required to flip a 5 tm tsr at -110 to +EV?