outplay factor

**Peeig** · 10-31-09, 02:24 PM

What is "the outplay factor"?

**Dark Horse** · 10-31-09, 02:31 PM

bait and bite.

**fresnosurf** · 11-01-09, 12:32 AM

**Meestermike** · 11-01-09, 10:24 AM

The outplay factor originated at Statfox I believe. Here is an explanation from when I looked at it in 2005.

Sample Outplay Factor Calculation from 2/4/05
* Unadjusted Composite OF factor vs the spread: Comparing the home and road team "Composite Outplay Factors" to generate a Outplay Factor line. (i.e. if the home team has Comp OF of 4.3, and the road team has a Comp OF of -3.1, then the theoretical unadjusted line would be home team favored by 7.4.
If the real line is home team favored by 5, the home team would have an edge in this case.)

The comparison to the line was also "adjusted" in some systems by adding 1.5 & 3 points to the home team for "home court advantage."

Game: Atlanta at Philadelphia (-10)

Atlanta OFF OF: 90.1 Offensive PPG vs Opponents Surrendering 95.9 PPG: -5.8
Atlanta DEF OF: 99.2 Defensive PPG vs Opponents Scoring 96.7 PPG: 2.5
Atlanta COMP OF: (OFF OF-DEF OF) -5.8-2.5= -8.3

Philadelphia OFF OF: 97.6 Offensive PPG vs Opponents Surrendering 96 PPG: 1.6
Philadelphia DEF OF: 99.9 Defensive PPG vs Opponents Scoring 95.9 PPG: 4
Philadelphia COMP OF: (OFF OF-DEF OF) 1.6-4= -2.4

***Unadjusted COMP OF vs spread (difference between the two teams): Philadelphia -5.9, actual line is Philadelphia -10, so Atlanta would have the edge

**slanted** · 11-01-09, 11:39 AM

Thanks for the reply and explanation meestermike much appreciated