How much credit do you give to teams coming off a bye?

**Justin7** · 10-09-09, 09:22 PM

None.

There might be something there, but I assume none without statistics supporting it.

**cappinthepigs** · 10-09-09, 11:07 PM

Yeah, It's going to be tough to find any stats to back up just how much it's worth. The rest is good, but.. What difference it makes especially a bad team off a bye ie.. KC or TB and such.. They a point better then? I'm not so sure about that.

**Reload** · 10-10-09, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by HotStreak

When coming up with your line for the upcoming games, do you shade a little bit towards the team coming off a bye vs. a team playing consecutive weeks.

Different value NCAA and NFL?

In general, I shade a point toward the home team coming off a bye and a 1/2 point to a road team off of bye. Anyone else have some guidelines?

Thanks.

Sounds like a good guideline here, HotStreak. For me, it depends on the teams involved but I do like taking a solid look at anyone coming off a bye, or teams off a longer layoff like playing Thursday the previous week.

**jon13009** · 10-10-09, 12:36 PM

This early in the season it should not be as critical....but the guidelines seen here seem to be a good start.

I would guess the teams who benefit are in the later weeks....

Any ideas on how teams going into a bye will play prior to going into a bye?

**HotStreak** · 10-13-09, 12:11 AM

I'm sure someone has the record ATS for teams exiting and entering a bye week. Not looking for anyone to feed my dinner to me. I'll get on it when I have coffee tomorrow morning..ermm.. this morning.

Week 5 NFL, all 4 teams coming off bye won SU and 3 of 4 ATS. Two were blow outs, and 2 were close calls.

Not going off a ridiculously small sample size, but I like Green Bay to win by 20+ at home off a bye vs. a banged up Detroit squad.

Look for Jennings and Rodgers to rekindle their love affair, sort of like Ryan and Roddy White this week. Prior to the bye, White had been non existent in ATL's passing game, despite high expectations. Green Bay makes a point of getting Jennings on track, and should air it out for a few quarters.

**HotStreak** · 10-13-09, 08:44 AM

O.K.

I was able to find team records ATS coming off a bye week up to 2007. The team coming off a bye, was 236-235 ATS. Even if the last 2 seasons leaned strongly toward the team returning from bye, there would still be no edge for the rested team.

As I looked for this statistic, it was constantly pointed out in the articles I read, that the lines makers shade the number against the team coming off of bye, because the public perception is to favor these teams.

In forming our own line, we are coming up with a "pure" number. One based on ratings and situations that apply directly to how the game will likely play out. The public perception should not shade our number, rather help us find value when the books hang their numbers.

There is certainly more to drill down on in this bye week angle; however, for the purpose of forming my own line, I am going to give no weight to the team coming off a bye.

I would love to hear any factors that others weigh in coming up with their numbers.

Thanks for the thoughts.