Does anyone have a real handle on calculating HFA in the pros. It seems we all use 3 points for HFA but to me it does not make sense. Take a team such as STL to me they should be a negative value as compared to NYG. Even Sagarin uses approx 3. So the question is how do you calculate a good HFA value that makes sense if there even is one.
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If your assertion is that some teams have a greater HFA than others, a good start would be a regression analysis to see if past team HFA is predictive of future team HFA. You can also use regression analysis to look for relationships between attendance, elevation, or whatever you think matters and HFA.Comment -
Quantifying this seems very difficult...I am not in favor of the 3 point HFA eitherComment -
Im dont home team adavatage exists on NFL, They are still playing in the usa.
This exist only on international games for example USA Soccer team playing on Bolivia. Now Bolivia Stadium is really high on a mountain so you will see how this affect the players.Comment -
If you don't think HFA exists in the NFL, I have a proposition bet in mind for you.Originally posted by acarmelo1Comment -
LOL I think I can guess the prop..... that being said a general HFA of 3 is not true..... I have some teams with a 5 for HFA and some teams that have -3..... if you honestly believe detroit or the raiders have any advantage despite where they play your dreaming....Originally posted by MrXComment -
Can you explain how you come up with your HFA's. I agree with you 100% that all teams cant have a 3 PT HFA.Originally posted by 20Four7Comment -
I could, but I've spent 20 years working on my nfl modelling..... I think you need to read Mr. X's post and go from there.....Comment -
bookies would disagree with you.Originally posted by 20Four7
Pittsburgh is laying 10.5 at Detroit this weekend.
You honestly think this line would be the same or lower if the game were in Pittsburgh?Comment -
A good starting point for coming up withs some sort of general theory for HFA would be to look at which statistics are most heavily impacted by HFA. For example, in baseball the home team generally has an edge in triples, walks, and strikeouts. The rest of the edges (ie, edge in runs) can be derived from those. Has anyone taken a look at where the largest edges for home teams in NFL games come from?Comment -
Of course the line would be greater in Pittsburgh because Pitts has a home field advantage. The line would probably be 14. I hope the bookies disagree with me in some games because that's how money is made.Originally posted by Pancho sanzaComment -
the refsOriginally posted by waiverwireComment -
Originally posted by acarmelo1
Are you saying theres no HCA in college basketball??? Please tell me you bet on it then and ill gladly be your bookieComment -
nice one Brian .... But I do like your way of thinking 24/7Comment -
I am saying exactly that. If the players are good, if the team is good. They will play good anywhere that have the same weather conditions as thier home.Originally posted by BrianLavertyComment -
HFA for NFL is so complicated you cannot concisely express it here.Comment -
Travel , Jet lag , Injuries , etc are the only advantages. It's loud everywhere these guy play no difference . a bunch of drunks screaming , though the refs can influence a game big time. 1 holding call on a TD and it can swing games 4-7 pts a time if they want. Look at the new England b.s roughing the passerComment -
exactly!Originally posted by acarmelo1Comment -
This statement way off and statistically unsustainableOriginally posted by acarmelo1
Can you prove me wrong acarmelo??Comment -
I searched for a user "Mr. X" and found nothing. I also searched for "HFA" and "Home Field Advantage" and couldn't find it. Help?Originally posted by 20Four7
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Look upOriginally posted by CoreyI searched for a user "Mr. X" and found nothing. I also searched for "HFA" and "Home Field Advantage" and couldn't find it. Help?Comment
