When to bet?

[coolguy73739]

I have done enough research in Basketball betting and found following: When I say NUMBER I mean Point Spread for BASKETBALL

1.NUMBER IS ACCURATE
2.NUMBER IS LEVEL FIELDED
3.NUMBER IS INFLATED


Most of the time these days, situation no. 1 and 2 are prevalent and Bookmakers are not taking positions mostly.
It makes no sense to bet in these situations. (1&2).
When number is inflated (situation 3), you are too scared to bet not knowing why the number is inflated in the first place?
How and when to bet then? thoughts?

[coolguy73739]

WNBA Minnesota LYnx -3.5.. NUMBER IS INFLATED but I will take a chance and betting $500 on Washington Mystics +3.5.. today..

[Optional]

How can a spread be accurate as well as inflated?

What does level fielded mean?

[coolguy73739]

I never said Numbers are accurate and inflated for same game. Situation 1 and 3 are for different games.
when I say Number is level fielded what I mean is spread is kept to make odds LEVELED or equal for a 50/50 probability. Example, a team with power rating differential of let’s say 7 is expected to have a spread of 10-12 playing at home with advantage, however Books are keeping the spread of let’s say 5-7 or in other words LEVELLED to make it 50/50 probability for the game ( could be due to injury to some players or other factors that we can’t predict).

[coolguy73739]

Dallas -9.0 is INFLATED.
I WILL take Mystics +9.0.
I hope guys with Model /System will understand.