Does Martingaling underdogs on a UFC card really work?

[Runeblade]

Well lets find out shall we?

Another addition to my does it work series looks at the UFC cards.

Rules:
Martingale all underdogs of the UFC card starting with $1 to 10 steps. for example: 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512
I Will be using a fake $5,000 bankroll. If the bankroll goes to $0 this will be considered a failure and will be the end of this thread.
Doubling the bankroll to $10,000 will be a success.

Warning! Do not tail these plays.

You do so at your own risk.

You have been warned.

[Runeblade]

9/19/2020

Jerome Rivera (+165) $1 to win $1.65 LOSS
Irwin Rivera (+195) $2 to win $3.90 LOSS
Randy Costa (+100) $4 to win $4 WIN
Darrick Minner (+250) $1 to win $2.50 WIN
Sarah Alpar (+180) $1 to win $1.80 LOSS
Mara Romero Borella (+200) $2 to win $4 LOSS
Damon Jackson (+300) $4 to win $12 WIN
Darren Stewart (+250) $1 to win $2.50 LOSS
Randa Markos (+160) $2 to win $3.20 LOSS
Ryan Spann (+125) $4 to win $5 LOSS
Gerald Meerschaert (+400) $8 to win $32 LOSS
Donald Cerrone (+120) $16 to win $19.20 LOSS
Tyron Woodley (+265) $32 to win $84.80 LOSS

Will be continued next Saturday 9/26/2020

Current Bankroll $4,949.50 $-50.50

[semibluff]

Please stop. Betting underdogs or favourites without a reason isn't going to work, (unless you can arb). A Martingale strategy is known to fail long term. MMA is a comparatively high juice market. You need either handicapping skills or the ability to spot and exploit a weakness in the market.

[Runeblade]

Please stop. Betting underdogs or favourites without a reason isn't going to work, (unless you can arb). A Martingale strategy is known to fail long term. MMA is a comparatively high juice market. You need either handicapping skills or the ability to spot and exploit a weakness in the market.

Thanks for your input. Good luck on your bets tonight.

[blurryturtle]

I don't want to lead you down a path of peligro, but the way to do this is to stop betting for the night the moment that an upset occurs. Increase your wager accordingly with the underdog ML to get even/make a very specific unit size, and once an underdog wins, you're done betting for the night. It will be minimal returns by design and you will eat it the first time a card has nothing but favorite victories, but the method you're employing of just endlessly betting on UFC fights is not going to be profitable over time.

[andersonlee]

I don't want to lead you down a path of peligro, but the way to do this is to stop betting for the night the moment that an upset occurs. Increase your wager accordingly with the underdog ML to get even/make a very specific unit size, and once an underdog wins, you're done betting for the night. It will be minimal returns by design and you will eat it the first time a card has nothing but favorite victories, but the method you're employing of just endlessly betting on UFC fights is not going to be profitable over time.

Food for thought.

[Runeblade]

Yeah I'm gonna stop this one. Your right. Sooner or later a card is going to hit all favorites thank you.

[Runeblade]

*Thread canceled*