Projecting QB pass attempts in NFL

[Poogs]

Hi all.

I'm working on a few NFL prop models. But I run into the same problem with everything; coming up with a reliable projection for passing attempts in a single game. The quick and dirt way I do it now is just use the QB's ave PA per game and normalize it against the opponent. IE if the opponent gives up 40 pass attempts per game, and the leave avg is 35, the QB would be expected to throw it more than avg. (say he usualy throws its 25 times per game. Id do 25/35*40)

This works OK, but I know there are far better ways to do it. Can anyone share what they use? Or if anyone really wants to help and run a regression, Id be more than happy to pay for it. Or even trade...I have access to a few really soft books as well as ability to model lots and lots of props for all sports. Ideally, Id like to match up with someone who is really good at running regressions and making models but doesnt know a ton about betting. We would be able to help each other immensely.

If anyone is interested, please PM me!

Thank you for reading!

[Waterstpub87]

There are probably some other variables you need to consider:

Pace
Sacks
Opponents offense possession time

Do you have excel? If you know what variables you want to test, it is pretty easy to run regressions in excel, not something you should pay people to do.

[Poogs]

I have excel and know how to run regressions, but its a matter of getting the data.

[Poogs]

Guys that cap the NFL; how do you come up with a projection for passing and rushing attempts in individual games?

[trytrytry]

what are the really soft books?

[Poogs]

pay per head books. One is called EZplay

[danshan11]

I think limits and how quickly you can get limited make this road a tough road even if you get something that works pretty well. Say you come up with something that is way better than the line regularly. You will quickly get books limiting you especially on these small props they have small limits on anyway. I also am afraid of the super high margins on these type bets, that can make it really difficult to profit from this section

[Poogs]

Ugh. Yea I Know that. None of that is of any concern whatsoever to me. And LOL at props not being profitbale because of the "high margin". If they tripled their juice over night Id still be beating a lot of these.

Does anyone even know what Im asking here? I have lots of ways to help someone make money. I could can get action down on correlated NHL parlays (and even some 1h nfl stuff). I can show how to beat lots of other props (NHL and NBA). I dont expect a free hand out, so if you know what Im looking for here, it cant hurt to send me a PM and see if we can make something work for the both of us. Ive worked with lots of people in the past.

[danshan11]

Ugh. Yea I Know that. None of that is of any concern whatsoever to me. And LOL at props not being profitbale because of the "high margin". If they tripled their juice over night Id still be beating a lot of these.

Does anyone even know what Im asking here? I have lots of ways to help someone make money. I could can get action down on correlated NHL parlays (and even some 1h nfl stuff). I can show how to beat lots of other props (NHL and NBA). I dont expect a free hand out, so if you know what Im looking for here, it cant hurt to send me a PM and see if we can make something work for the both of us. Ive worked with lots of people in the past.

that is amazing, you must really be talented to not even have concern for margins, very good, keep up the good work! Most people like me are very concerned with the margin it is technically what we are trying to beat! Best of luck!

[tsty]

Did you even read his post? Lol

No wonder you struggle