Hi all.
I'm working on a few NFL prop models. But I run into the same problem with everything; coming up with a reliable projection for passing attempts in a single game. The quick and dirt way I do it now is just use the QB's ave PA per game and normalize it against the opponent. IE if the opponent gives up 40 pass attempts per game, and the leave avg is 35, the QB would be expected to throw it more than avg. (say he usualy throws its 25 times per game. Id do 25/35*40)
This works OK, but I know there are far better ways to do it. Can anyone share what they use? Or if anyone really wants to help and run a regression, Id be more than happy to pay for it. Or even trade...I have access to a few really soft books as well as ability to model lots and lots of props for all sports. Ideally, Id like to match up with someone who is really good at running regressions and making models but doesnt know a ton about betting. We would be able to help each other immensely.
If anyone is interested, please PM me!
Thank you for reading!
I'm working on a few NFL prop models. But I run into the same problem with everything; coming up with a reliable projection for passing attempts in a single game. The quick and dirt way I do it now is just use the QB's ave PA per game and normalize it against the opponent. IE if the opponent gives up 40 pass attempts per game, and the leave avg is 35, the QB would be expected to throw it more than avg. (say he usualy throws its 25 times per game. Id do 25/35*40)
This works OK, but I know there are far better ways to do it. Can anyone share what they use? Or if anyone really wants to help and run a regression, Id be more than happy to pay for it. Or even trade...I have access to a few really soft books as well as ability to model lots and lots of props for all sports. Ideally, Id like to match up with someone who is really good at running regressions and making models but doesnt know a ton about betting. We would be able to help each other immensely.
If anyone is interested, please PM me!
Thank you for reading!