2 way vs 3 way Value Breakdown

**semibluff** · 08-04-18, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

Sorry folks I am new to soccer betting but I ran into a little issue with trying to calculate edge, any help would be appreciated

Lines
Game 1 example
Yankees -104
Dodgers -104
that gives you a margin 1.94% which you divide that between the 2 giving you a side margin of .97%

Game 2 example
Orlando +115
New England +218
Draw +302
that gives you a margin of 2.83% which you divide by 3 giving you a side margin of .9433%

seems really low for a MLS soccer match, can anyone guide me where I am lost here, thanks

Your numbers are not wrong. It's always a very good idea for someone to look at the total 'book price' on an event, (bolded to prevent any confusion with the term 'book price' from the actual book offering it). This is always a good guide as to the edge you'll need to simply break even. As you pointed out the example 1 the 'book price' is 101.94%, (meaning if you wagered on every outcome with a stake that would return $100 your total outlay on the event would be $101.94. Thus with no edge you expect to lose $1.94 out of every $101.94 you wager. Your 2nd example is 102.83% so you should expect to lose $2.83 out of every $102.83 if you were picking at random.

Were you might be struggling is you 'appear' to be thinking a book adds something in the range of 0.9433 to 0.97 margin for every additional possible outcome. This is incorrect. Books start with a basic profit margin on a 2 outcome event and 'generally' and add ever decreasing additional profit margins for every additional outcome. The reason for this is that adding a 3rd outcome to a 2 outcome event creates a greater risk of getting a price wrong than the additional risk of adding a 10th outcome to a 9 outcome wager. Thus a book will see an event with, say, 8 outcomes and price the event up to whatever they historically price an 8 outcome event at.

Thus the .9433 and .97 figures you are using are not constants and different books have different starting book prices. Even on the same sport the margin can vary because there's a higher level of profit at -110, -110 than there is at -150, +130.

You should also be aware the books will dramatically alter the book price depending on how stable they perceive a market to be. For example they're pretty sure the Yankees and Dodgers are an even money bet so both are -104. However they're far less sure about which starting pitcher throws the most Ks so the prop market on Ks might open with both team's starting pitcher at -115 to throw the most Ks. The book price is higher because the risk factor to the book is much higher. Some sports are perceived to be higher risk than others. A women's volleyball match is more likely to be tampered with than an MLB game so expect the volleyball book price to be 108% whilst the MLB game book price is 101.94%. Another factor is how much profit margin a book thinks its customers will absorb.

From a European book perspective most mainstream books offer NFL and MLB, (2 outcome), games at 104.76% and Premier League soccer, (3 outcome), games around a slightly lower104.4%.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 12:42 PM

I think you got confused by my 3 year old grammar skills and lack of ability to explain.
I am saying if I bet the yankees at -104 and they close at -108 assuming a margin of 1.94% that is my break even point half of the total margin.
I am asking if I bet Orlando at +115 at what price do I need it to close to break even, this I dont know because I dont know how to split that margin is it into 3s or split into 2? I dont get it.

to simplify here is the question assuming pinnacle is charging -104 -104 and I bet at -104 on a game at what number do I need the game to close at to breakeven (edge) to start seeing profit?
and same thing for the Orlando I bet at +115 at what number will I see a profit, because I do not know how to split that margin since it is 3way or is it not, LOL

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 12:45 PM

and I forget to mention yes I know each book is different and I know that every game although most in the same league and type bet have very close margins that the margin can slightly vary BUT I am talking in general to try and understand where the CLV profit point is on 3 way betting

**semibluff** · 08-04-18, 02:19 PM

If you bet at -104 you will need to win 50.9804% to break even. The math here is 100% * (104) / (100 + 104). If you believe your selection has a better than 50.9804% then that is your edge. It does not matter to your bet whether there are 2 outcomes or 200.

I have had no problems with your language skills as expressed in your posts. I attempted to answer your question in a way that was clear for others with lesser gambling experience and math ability than yourself, rather than post just for you.

You already have a thread in which you have expressed your views on closing lines and closing line value. I have avoided getting involved with those topics. I'm not getting involved with those topics in this thread either. I'm not picking a fight. I'm just staying out of a circular argument.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 02:22 PM

I understand the -104 2 way of course but I am very confused on the 3 way
what percentage in the 3way do I need to win to breakeven ?

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

I have had no problems with your language skills as expressed in your posts. I attempted to answer your question in a way that was clear for others with lesser gambling experience and math ability than yourself, rather than post just for you.

thanks for the compliment but my math and betting skills are not much better than my language skills, LOL

**semibluff** · 08-04-18, 02:52 PM

Example 1: 2 outcomes, team A -104, team B -104, total book price 101.963%
If you bet on team A you need to win 50.981% of the time to break even.
If you bet on team B you need to win 50.981% of the time to break even.

Example 2: 3 outcomes, team A -104, team B -104, team C +8000, total book price 103.197%
If you bet on team A you need to win 50.981% of the time to break even.
If you bet on team B you need to win 50.981% of the time to break even.
If you bet on team C you need to win 1.235% of the time to break even.

Example 3: 4 outcomes, team A -104, team B -104, team C +8000, team D +10000, total book price 105.138%
If you bet on team A you need to win 50.981% of the time to break even.
If you bet on team B you need to win 50.981% of the time to break even.
If you bet on team C you need to win 1.235% of the time to break even.
If you bet on team D you need to win 0.990% of the time to break even.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 03:12 PM

I understand, thanks for the explanation but I just did the 3 way margin calc and subtracted the juice the funny part on the same game the juice varies widely

**snapperman2** · 08-10-18, 07:11 PM

What you are trying to do is to calculate the no-vig line for each of the 3 possibilities in the bet. You do this by 1. Calculating the winning expectancy for each possibility based on the line. 2. Adding up the winning expectancies (they will add to more than 100% so the book makes a profit), then dividing each possibility's winning expectancy by this total. 3. Turning the winning expectancies into moneyline odds again. Then you will see what the closing odds need to be for you to be making a profitable bet.