Best time to bet teasers?

[StackinGreen]

Someone please explain why lots of people believe parlays are sucker bets. If the parlay offers true odds by multiplying the individual odds together AND you have a positive expected return on each, then the expected return for the parlay is higher than the expected return for each wager. Waterstpub87 pointed this out in a response to the thread "Parlays and expected returns" in this forum. But as HeeeHAWWWW also pointed out, the variance increases.
There are some very thoughtful people who post in this forum, we can learn a lot from them.

Indeed, and I proved it this year with round robins in baseball. The math, more importantly, already shows it.

Variance is a concept that most people, though you can verify it in real life too, will not stick around long enough to try to understand practically.

[LT Profits]

I forgot to mention this in my previous but your point is rather moot because you are talking about "buying" points as opposed to playing them from the teaser card...I mentioned this before several times over the years...books like 5dimes and Heritage give you much better odds from their teaser menus where crossing the 0 doesn't effect you in terms of overpricing or getting charged 2 full points going from 1- to +1 as opposed to doing a parlay and buying the points yourself.

The point remains the same, if you are betting a 6-point teaser, you are being charged for a 6-point teaser when crossing the 0 even though that effectively makes it a 5-point teaser.

[Waterstpub87]

Teasers are mostly square bets, with some rare exceptions

Using the value off of the half point calculator: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...nt-calculator/ and current nfl lines:

Sharp Teaser:
Oak 2.5 to 8.5
Carolina 2 to 8
Was 2 to 8

Going from 2.5 to 8.5 is the equivalent of -311.6 (75.71%)
From 2 to 8 is the equivalent of -320.5 (76.22%)

To calculate odds of winning: .7571*.76.22*.76.22 = 43.98% Win Rate, 165 payout = 37.74%, 6.24% edge

Super Square Teaser
SF 12 to 18
CIN -10.5 to -4.5
NYJ 4.5 to 10.5

SF = -207.7 ( 67.50%)
CIN= -219.9 (68.74%)
NYJ = -220.2 ( 68.77%)

Odds of winning= .319 vs 165 payout = .3774, -5.8% advantage, more than double straight bets

Teasing through 0

BUF -2.5 to 3.5
TB -2 to 4
DAL -2 to 4

BUF to 0 is -119.6 from 0 to 3.5 -219.8 (68.73%)
TB to 0 is -115 from 0 to 4 is -231.6 (69.84%)
DAL to 0 is -115 from 0 to 4 is -231.6 (69.84%)

Winning %= .335523 vs 165 payout = .3774, -4.2% advantage, almost double straight bets

So in reality, the only time one should bet teasers is when one can bet a sharp teaser. Books shade lines however, to protect themselves.

[Da Manster!]

The point remains the same, if you are betting a 6-point teaser, you are being charged for a 6-point teaser when crossing the 0 even though that effectively makes it a 5-point teaser.

well, my other point still stands...it might make a difference if you win or lose the wager...

[LT Profits]

well, my other point still stands...it might make a difference if you win or lose the wager...

But the pricing makes it -EV long term, which is all that matters. Waterstub explained it perfectly above, the only bettable teasers are Wong teasers at the right price, as well as teasing down -6.5 favorites depending on the ML. I am talking NFL only, all other teasers are almost always indeed "sucker bets" for the most part.

[LT Profits]

well, my other point still stands...it might make a difference if you win or lose the wager...

The difference between you and I is you look at winning ONE wager, whereas I look at what would happen if you make that same wager an infinite amount of times.

[Da Manster!]

But the pricing makes it -EV long term, which is all that matters. Waterstub explained it perfectly above, the only bettable teasers are Wong teasers at the right price, as well as teasing down -6.5 favorites depending on the ML. I am talking NFL only, all other teasers are almost always indeed "sucker bets" for the most part.

and the vast majority of people who gamble wind up losing in the long so who is the sucker?!...at least I have a proven track record winning consistently over the years....validated and verified here on SBR...at the end of the day, who in the fuk cares as long as you're winning, staying in the black, and making profits?

[Da Manster!]

The difference between you and I is you look at winning ONE wager, whereas I look at what would happen if you make that same wager an infinite amount of times.

yeah, but who has the money to make the same wager an "infinite" number of times?...the object is to win and come out ahead at the end of the day...you make it sound like gambling is all about making a straight wager...hell, if it was that easy, we'd all be millionaires.