Line Movement

**Waterstpub87** · 10-17-16, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Roscoe_Word

Hello. I read somewhere (can't exactly remember) where it suggests wagering early.

Wouldn't that depend on one's ability to determine line movement? (which might be more difficult to determine than the game itself)

What are some opinions on this?

I think you are confused on terminology.

Theory goes as such:

1. Opening lines are weaker than closing lines (termed openers vs. closers)
2. Sharper bettors take advantage of weaker opening numbers, betting as early as possible
3. Line moves in direction of their betting
4. Lines change and move based on action and news in the market place
5. Lines are most accurate the minute before game time, as all information has been encapsulated in the final line.

On your question re: Determine line movement: It is very easy to determine line movement. Using something like SBRodds will give you the line movement.

The problem is, that by the time you determine said line movement, the edge is diminished (this is theory, due to different books having different lines, you can bet at slower moving books to beat the movement there, termed chasing steam). You could bet, hoping that lines continue to move in that direction, but this will not always happen.

The key to winning is to predict line movements, by having a more accurate model, or by better estimation of the effects of news and information. This is where betting early comes in.

**Roscoe_Word** · 10-17-16, 05:37 PM

That is really a great answer.

I have a model (method) and suspected that (as you stated) early betting is preferable.

As an example I bet on BUFF early at -8 last week. The 1st line move knocked them down to -7.5 and it was frustrating to think I lost 1/2 pt.

However the closing line was (I think) -9, so the bet early theory bore out.

Will utilize this procedure especially with the NBA looming.

Thank you for the comprehensive response.

**Waterstpub87** · 10-17-16, 06:27 PM

Not a problem. Hope it works out for you.