NBA fouls

[DedesSports]

Hi,

Does anyone have an idea on how I could check how the totals for a NBA match get affected when teams go into "penalty" ?
I assume totals line has to go up by some amount, but I am lost on what to test in order to get to conclusion.

thanks

[Waterstpub87]

Hi,

Does anyone have an idea on how I could check how the totals for a NBA match get affected when teams go into "penalty" ?
I assume totals line has to go up by some amount, but I am lost on what to test in order to get to conclusion.

thanks

Do you mean with live betting? Would be difficult to get live betting data.

[KVB]

I was wondering the same thing, you must mean live betting...which will likely require your own data collection, including the time of game in which bonus was entered.

For pre-game lines consider some of this information "built-in."

You could go back for the pre game lines and see whether or not teams entering the bonus (one or both) affects whether or not the result is OVER or UNDER.

But unless you can predict whether or not a team will go into the bonus, it won't be too helpful.

For live lines, the opportunity to recognize a team (or both) going into bonus while still being able to exploit a soft line will be slim, if existent at all.

It could be better simply to look for a fast or slow start and then take advantage of market over reaction. This let's a combination of things play out instead of isolating the free throws.

[DedesSports]

Do you mean with live betting? Would be difficult to get live betting data.

I was wondering the same thing, you must mean live betting...which will likely require your own data collection, including the time of game in which bonus was entered.

For pre-game lines consider some of this information "built-in."

You could go back for the pre game lines and see whether or not teams entering the bonus (one or both) affects whether or not the result is OVER or UNDER.

But unless you can predict whether or not a team will go into the bonus, it won't be too helpful.

For live lines, the opportunity to recognize a team (or both) going into bonus while still being able to exploit a soft line will be slim, if existent at all.

It could be better simply to look for a fast or slow start and then take advantage of market over reaction. This let's a combination of things play out instead of isolating the free throws.

Hi,

yes, I was speaking about live play. I agree that the Pre game line already has it built-in, but assuming a normal fouls distribution along the quarter (although I don't know what normal is).

But according to conversations I have had with my friends that follow closely NBA, they always say that if one team goes to penalty early in the quarter, the totals will go up. So, I wanted to test that.

The 1st difficulty is getting data. But assuming I could get it, how you think it should be dealt ? My idea was by 1st comparing quarters where we had penalty with the ones who did not had it. And then, on the ones that did have it, check by time intervals. Would also be relevant to use the starting line for the qtr.

Do you agree ?

thanks

[Waterstpub87]

I would assume that fouls would not be normally distributed, but would be heavily skewed towards the 4th quarter. The margin of score would be important as well, because if a team is up 20 points, they will not intentionally foul.