Best opening power ranking

[steve227]

I know year over year Sagarin is possible the most consistent out there for the first 3-5 wks. I was wondering what other peoples thoughts where on the best early season power rankings. Not seeking any deep rooted family secret gems, just some honest input.
Thanks in advance Steve

[a4u2fear]

I know year over year Sagarin is possible the most consistent out there for the first 3-5 wks. I was wondering what other peoples thoughts where on the best early season power rankings. Not seeking any deep rooted family secret gems, just some honest input.
Thanks in advance Steve

dont use power rankings to make bets.

dont bet the first few weeks.

develop your own estimates for games.

[sshz]

Absolutely correct!

[capone1899]

dont use power rankings to make bets.

dont bet the first few weeks.

develop your own estimates for games.

Absolutely horrible advice. The best lines are in weeks 1-4. If cant win in weeks 1-4 its because you're an idiot who "caps" games. After week 4 Vegas knows exactly who is good so most of the line have been adjusted/set pretty close. You think a schmuck like you is going
to out think Vegas, ha!

As for the OP's answer, the best power ranking is the one you make using a formula you put together . Other than that,
Sagarin is probably the best to use if you're not making one. His top 15 looks pretty good except for TCU. He has them about 20 spots too high

[Buffalo Nickle]

Power ratings are interesting to look at and good for estimating lines before they come out but not good for betting. Many of the ratings use the line to improve their results. Sagarin is the most publicized because he has been at it for a long time and is in a high profile position but there are several ratings that have outperformed him in terms of straight up prediction. The best power ratings are probably:

Entropy
Pigskin Index
StatFox
Atomic Football
Kambour

Sagarin ranks right with these but slightly below in long-term performance.

[Buffalo Nickle]

I did experiment with using the above power ratings best pick of the week and followed the results for three seasons. They about broke even against the line which is pretty good but might have just been luck. But none of the power ratings have come close to beating the line over a period of years. The ratings are particularly useless for early season since they really do not have much to go on but previous years stats and returning starters.

[capone1899]

I did experiment with using the above power ratings best pick of the week and followed the results for three seasons. They about broke even against the line which is pretty good but might have just been luck. But none of the power ratings have come close to beating the line over a period of years. The ratings are particularly useless for early season since they really do not have much to go on but previous years stats and returning starters.

Useless? That's funny. How about the two of us pick the first week of games and see who does better

[a4u2fear]

Absolutely horrible advice. The best lines are in weeks 1-4. If cant win in weeks 1-4 its because you're an idiot who "caps" games. After week 4 Vegas knows exactly who is good so most of the line have been adjusted/set pretty close. You think a schmuck like you is going
to out think Vegas, ha!

As for the OP's answer, the best power ranking is the one you make using a formula you put together . Other than that,
Sagarin is probably the best to use if you're not making one. His top 15 looks pretty good except for TCU. He has them about 20 spots too high

Lol. I'm one of the best cappers on this site. You can't even come close to the results here pal:

http://contests.sportsbookreview.com/sbr-best-bet-contest-2016-contest-5595/

[a4u2fear]

Absolutely horrible advice. The best lines are in weeks 1-4. If cant win in weeks 1-4 its because you're an idiot who "caps" games. After week 4 Vegas knows exactly who is good so most of the line have been adjusted/set pretty close. You think a schmuck like you is going
to out think Vegas, ha!

As for the OP's answer, the best power ranking is the one you make using a formula you put together . Other than that,
Sagarin is probably the best to use if you're not making one. His top 15 looks pretty good except for TCU. He has them about 20 spots too high

why am i even talking to this guy, thinks he can cap games with power rankings, embarrassing.

[Buffalo Nickle]

Useless? That's funny. How about the two of us pick the first week of games and see who does better

You are going to pick off power ratings? You say you use your own power ratings. I don't think you understand the question, kemosabe.

[Buffalo Nickle]

Let's do this. Cappy Cap Cap. You post a line for the games every Sunday before BOL and I will bet your lines and I will win. We will put whatever you want to put on it.

10,000 BetPoints Cappy. I see you only have 36. But I will trust you to pay me 100 every time you collect them and I will do likewise.

[capone1899]

You are going to pick off power ratings? You say you use your own power ratings. I don't think you understand the question, kemosabe.

You said power rankings are useless in early season, I disagree. Weeks 1-4 are the easiest to beat. Yes, I use my own power rankings that I've made over the past 10 years. I'll be more than glad to pick every game against you in weeks 1-4 to show you power rankings are great for the early part of season. If you dont want to, thats fine.

[capone1899]

Lol. I'm one of the best cappers on this site. You can't even come close to the results here pal:
http://contests.sportsbookreview.com...-contest-5595/

Same deal for you:
I'll be more than glad to pick every game against you in weeks 1-4 to show you power rankings are great for the early part of season.

And no one cares about your SBR record....no one

[capone1899]

Hell, we dont even have to pick every game. Pick 10-15 per week. Doesnt matter to me

[Buffalo Nickle]

You said power rankings are useless in early season, I disagree. Weeks 1-4 are the easiest to beat. Yes, I use my own power rankings that I've made over the past 10 years. I'll be more than glad to pick every game against you in weeks 1-4 to show you power rankings are great for the early part of season. If you dont want to, thats fine.

You don't have power ratings. You have opinions that you use to create a "power rating." A power rating referenced in this thread is a rating that excludes opinion and are largely done by university professors, CPAs and other math nerds. That is not you. You are a capper. The very thing you mock in this thread.

What is the point of picking every game against the spread? That is D-U-M Dumb!

[cincy]

I'm curious how sites like sagarin develop their power ratings for week 1 when there are no games played yet. Do they use a previous year rating with some regression to the mean or actually evaluate team changes to develop a power rating?

I think a good approach is to use vegas odds to win the superbowl or vegas over/under regular season win lines for each team as a starting point for early season power ratings. For example if Dallas has a RSW betting line of 9 wins this equates to a 56.25 win % and you can estimate a power rating from (win%-50) x 30 or (56.25-50) x 30 = +1.9

[Buffalo Nickle]

They all have their own methods. But they are primarily interested in the end result. They don't take the early results seriously. But they are competitive with one another and all looking to do better than Sagarin. They really all want to be included in the NCAA selection process.

In early season, they basically rely on the fact that performance with programs is pretty consistent from year to year and then they input returning starters and use whatever stats they are going to use and go with that. But they themselves will admit that the early ratings are not particularly good. But they think at the end, they have the best.

[Waterstpub87]

This is a good question. I don't bet college sports normally, but did some research into college football, but was unable to develop a good model for college games (I had many results that had teams covering a spread 85% of the time or more, which I know indicates a poor model). I was trying to use ESPN FPI defense and offense, and use the values for last years rank for these years rank. What is a better way to handicap college football? I also tried to weight last years performance by returning starters, but ran into similar results.

[capone1899]

You don't have power ratings. You have opinions that you use to create a "power rating." A power rating referenced in this thread is a rating that excludes opinion and are largely done by university professors, CPAs and other math nerds. That is not you. You are a capper. The very thing you mock in this thread.

What is the point of picking every game against the spread? That is D-U-M Dumb!

You are so far off that its not even funny. I have a dozen excel sheets full of data for every team that I use to compute one final rating for each team. I know exactly how to take the difference in two teams rankings and compute it into a point spread.That sir is a power ranking. I also have a mathematics degree, so wrong again . I dont watch ESPN, read stupid magazines or read forums for information, I use my own

The point of picking ever game is to show you my numbers are better than your "capping" skills, and to show you that they are the best thing to use for weeks 1-4, not worthless as you say, but keep back tracking, you can tell you're in over your head

[evo34]

You are so far off that its not even funny. I have a dozen excel sheets full of data for every team that I use to compute one final rating for each team. I know exactly how to take the difference in two teams rankings and compute it into a point spread.That sir is a power ranking. I also have a mathematics degree, so wrong again . I dont watch ESPN, read stupid magazines or read forums for information, I use my own

The point of picking ever game is to show you my numbers are better than your "capping" skills, and to show you that they are the best thing to use for weeks 1-4, not worthless as you say, but keep back tracking, you can tell you're in over your head

Instead challenging some random internet guy to a picks fight, why don't you build up a track record at Pickmonitor.com? Or is full accounting of performance scary to you?

[capone1899]

Instead challenging some random internet guy to a picks fight, why don't you build up a track record at Pickmonitor.com? Or is full accounting of performance scary to you?

I would do that why, so I can be a tout? Yeah, no thanks. I share my plays with 2 people and both are family. I was only picking against the two of them to prove a point, but neither of them want to do it and proven wrong

[Buffalo Nickle]

It is obvious that math is your best subject because reading comprehension is very low.

This should be mono-a-mono, me against you and your math degree. May the best man win. I am surprised that someone with a math degree wishes to introduce additional variance into his picks. We need a face-off of your opinion against mine.

If you would like more time to set up your lines, feel free to wait until BOL or Bookmaker comes out with theirs and I will be happy to bet then if you use your own lines. I can bet sportsbook lines in my own account with real money.

Here you have lines superior to Vegas and are passing up on this deal? If only we still had real math guys in this Think Tank that could calculate probability.

[capone1899]

It is obvious that math is your best subject because reading comprehension is very low.

This should be mono-a-mono, me against you and your math degree. May the best man win. I am surprised that someone with a math degree wishes to introduce additional variance into his picks. We need a face-off of your opinion against mine.

If you would like more time to set up your lines, feel free to wait until BOL or Bookmaker comes out with theirs and I will be happy to bet then if you use your own lines. I can bet sportsbook lines in my own account with real money.

Here you have lines superior to Vegas and are passing up on this deal? If only we still had real math guys in this Think Tank that could calculate probability.

Its okay, I understand you dont wanna look like a fool after running your mouth....completely understand. I wouldnt want to pick an entire schedule of games using "capping" skills vs someone using numbers in week 1 either.

[Buffalo Nickle]

This has got to be one of the worst challenges ever. Get out of the Think Tank and don't come back!!! It is bad enough as it is.

[capone1899]

This has got to be one of the worst challenges ever. Get out of the Think Tank and don't come back!!! It is bad enough as it is.

RETREAT!!!! He knows he'd make me look bad after I said power rankings are useless.


Thats what you really need to say. You've made every excuse possible . A great "capper" would love to challenge someone and their silly power rankings. You're just a chump who likes to run his mouth but cant back it up

[Buffalo Nickle]

RETREAT!!!! He knows he'd make me look bad after I said power rankings are useless.


Thats what you really need to say. You've made every excuse possible . A great "capper" would love to challenge someone and their silly power rankings. You're just a chump who likes to run his mouth but cant back it up

Low reading comprehension. 10,000 BetPoints still on.

[evo34]

I would do that why, so I can be a tout? Yeah, no thanks. I share my plays with 2 people and both are family. I was only picking against the two of them to prove a point, but neither of them want to do it and proven wrong

You track your picks at a third-party site if you want people to think you are any good (which apparently you do). Challenging someone head to head for a few weeks doesn't prove a thing.

[CHUBNUT]

Power ratings/rankings have nothing to do with predicting the outcome of an event but only an estimation of the supremacy of the game. The only thing any good power rating can do for a bettor is to inform you of the bookmakers lean in a contest. Its very important for a bookmaker as it tells them what zone to enter their odds.