I am attempting to backtest a model, but with the NBA individual players are very important. Is there any website that would have players status listed for particular days?
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Why do you need their status when you can see whether they played or not?...
Players' statuses on game days can be very inaccurate anyway...Comment -
I see your point...
Problem for you is this:
I have been following NBA injury reports daily for at least 15 years and "Questionable", "Doubtful" and "Probable", don't pan out at all..."Probable" is accurate at least 90% of the time, but I have seen "Doubtful" players play more than one might think..."Questionable" is basically ridiculous as that tells me nothing and if the player is important enough to make a difference in the line, then I stay away from those games if a major/key/line-mover player is "Questionable"...
Doubt if you will find historical information on this... For my database, I have whether the player played or not, which is good enough for me as you could run your "future information" 2 ways:
1) test it without the player in question playing
2) test it with the player in question playing
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Funny you should mention that, I joined this forum to ask the exact same question.
I have spent countless months developing a model getting it to the point of adding a significant advantage to the public odds/lines only to realize the NBA doesn't actually have to announce who is playing, most of the times you only find out after the game has started. As an Australian I cant tell you how bewildering this is, it is beyond ridiculous.
Anyway, as you mentioned, creating a model at the team level as opposed to the player level is useless. The problem with box scores is, you are using information (who ended up playing) that isn't known until the end of the game. So as it stands my model is useless, because i have no way of knowing what the lineups listed in the box score are until after the event!
The only way you can accurately replicate in and out of sample is to have each teams list with an injury status for each player so your lineup projections in sample and out of sample are the same.Comment
