Can anyone post this for me for the last 5 years as well as this season? I am looking for the record of the winning team on sunday night baseball the following game.
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Appears to be a good fade since 2009. Almost 11%ROI.
SU:
102-113 (-0.08, 47.4%) avg line: -125.5 / 113.3 on / against: -$3,864 / +$2,611 ROI: -13.5% / +10.9%Comment -
how do we know if their next game was on Monday or Tuesday?Comment -
Since 2009, eliminating playoffs and the 6 games that fell in series game 4. A total of 10 games fell on Wed, Thurs and Fri.Originally posted by statnerds
Monday
Tuesday55-66 (-0.47, 45.5%) avg line: -128.1 / 116.0 on / against: -$3,178 / +$2,407 ROI: -19.6% / +18.2%
27-31 (0.50, 46.6%) avg line: -126.3 / 113.8 on / against: -$1,087 / +$762 ROI: -13.9% / +11.7% Comment -
Nice, thanks for that JMon...only logic being what do we care if the won and then had a day off.Comment -
Been using it in my handicapping formula forever.Comment -
Nice! This is new too me. Solid let down spot, with somewhat inflated line. I've been working the database on this one. I'll post parameters if findings don't overfit.Originally posted by leetreaperComment -
Originally posted by JMon
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My findings of the spot without losing too much integrity are below. Personally I am unsure as it appears to be trending (nothing wrong with riding the wave, but shouldn't be trusted...IMO). I can only go as far back as 2004 with data so take the following with a grain of salt. The time/start of Sunday night baseball and it's prime time should be discussed. So logic of a let down spot off a big win holds somewhat true? But why losing years in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008 and not 2007 which was a big year to fade? Overall since 2009, no losing years fading the parameters below. Discuss?? I'm interested in this. Keep in mind if anyone of you guys have a parameter/filter let me know and I can test it.
Parameters: We fade the team in their next game
1. Had Sunday night game (prime time) and won
2. Is a favorite between -105 > line > -230 or a dog between 170> line > 125 (this is merely overfitting, thus stands true on historic lines but not future lines)
3. No more than 1 days rest
4. Playoffs not included
Not a great sample, but merely a spot play since 2007
Overall:
Reason of question as why it needs discussion..73-106 (-0.74, 40.8%) avg line: -132.4 / 120.6 on / against: -$7,055 / +$5,937 ROI: -28.2% / +30.4%
Losing years:
2008:
2006:14-8 (-0.09, 63.6%) avg line: -130.5 / 118.6 on / against: +$395 / -$525 ROI: +13.1% / -22.1%
2005:15-14 (-1.17, 51.7%) avg line: -120.2 / 110.2 on / against: -$80 / -$50 ROI: -2.1% / -1.6%
2004:13-6 (-0.05, 68.4%) avg line: -128.2 / 116.6 on / against: +$595 / -$675 ROI: +22.5% / -31.2%
12-7 (1.42, 63.2%) avg line: -133.7 / 121.1 on / against: +$350 / -$420 ROI: +12.9% / -19.9% Comment -
^ interleague play and road teams do better on the fade here.. Let me know if you want to see the data.Comment